宋圭武观点110：为什么不能完全依靠市场来振兴农业

为什么不能完全依靠市场来振兴农业，下面谈谈理由，供大家参考。

与其它产业不同，农业是一类比较特殊的产业，其主要特点有：

第一，信息不对称严重，小农户无法有效掌握农产品生产需求信息。

第二，农产品很难用库存方式来应对市场需求波动，因为农产品一般难以长期保存。

第三，一般大宗农产品的需求收入弹性小，国民收入大幅增加，对农产品的需求未必大幅增加。

第四，增加农产品产量，农民会面临增产不增收甚至收入减少的情况。

第五，农业产业具有公共产品特征。人人都要吃饭，而且人人要天天吃饭。

第六，农业的自然风险很大。

第七，农业要追求综合效益最大化，不能只顾追求经济效益最大化。农业不仅仅是一个经济产业，而且是一个民生产业，是一个社会性产业。农业需要追求民生、环境、文化、经济等方面的综合效益。

第八，农业是一个慢活，不能追求生长速度。比如，让肉生长速度更快，就不是好事。让小麦生长速度加快，也不是好事。

第九，农产品质量的识别成本大。靠外观颜色味道等鉴别农产品质量是有较大误差的。

第十，在人口固定的情况下，由于社会总饭量固定，且每个人的饮食偏好基本固定，所以，社会对农业产品的总需求基本稳定，且需求结构也基本稳定。在这种情况下，农产品生产过量和不足对社会都不好。

第十一，农产品价格客观需要稳定，不能波动大。农产品价格是社会基础价格，若波动大，不仅对经济稳定发展不利，对社会稳定发展也不利。

第十二，对分散小农经济而言，在市场经济条件下，农业私人经营一般获利不大，或多亏本，甚至会产生大面积贫困的情况。

第十三，在市场经济条件下，农业通过私人大资本进行垄断经营，会有较大获利可能，但在资本家追求经济效益最大化目标下，会产生损害社会福利的问题。比如，大资本家可以通过减少农产品供给量，通过短缺方式，人为制定垄断高价，获取利润最大化。或者，通过快速提高农作物生长速度，如让牛肉生长速度更快等，获取更大利润等。这两种情况都严重损害社会福利。

上述特点说明，农业本质是市场弱势产业，尤其对于小农经济农业而言，更是严重的市场弱势。既然是市场弱势，所以，要完全依靠市场来振兴农业应是一个认识误区，农业客观需要政府应多发挥作用，客观需要更多依靠计划来振兴。

另外，上述特点也说明，农业是一个更适合公有制直接经营的产业。当然，公有制直接经营也有一个效率低下的问题，但这可以通过完善公有制直接经营的具体形式来实现。如，加强经济核算管理，强力反腐败，充分民主决策等，都可以部分消除公有制直接经营的一些不足。当然，要完全消除不足，也是不可能的。总之，世界上是不存在十全十美的制度的，具体在产业经营制度选择上，是选择公有制，还是选择私有制，只能利弊权衡，在没有最优的情况下，只能选择次优的形式，认识不能理想化。

由于农业是市场弱势产业，且农业更适合公有制直接经营，所以综合看，农业是一个更适合计划经济的产业。另外，先进的大数据技术等，也为农业实行计划经济提供了有利条件。比如，对农产品总需求的预测和估计，对农产品需求结构的预测和估计，在大数据技术下，会有预测和估计误差，但误差一般不会太大。而一味靠市场调节农产品市场供给与需求，必然市场波动多呈典型的蛛网模型特点，不是多了多了，就是少了少了，最终农民和城里人都受其害，实际是全社会都受其害，而且是全社会长期受其害。

当然，农业在实行计划经济的同时，对部分不关系国计民生的农产品，也可以通过充分发挥市场调节的优势以弥补计划的不足。

一般而言，不同类型的经济产业，需要不同的经济管理体制来适应。适合市场管理体制的产业，应让市场起决定性作用，不适合市场的产业，需要政府更好发挥作用。对农业而言，农业宏观管理体制，应探索建立半计划半市场管理体制，农业微观生产组织，应探索建立半自治半行政集体农场或国营农场，在农产品流通领域，可探索建立半统购半统销制度。好，谢谢，谢谢。

Song Guiwu's Viewpoint 110: Why can't we rely on the market to revitalize agriculture

Why can't we rely on the market to revitalize agriculture? Different from other industries, agriculture is a special industry. Its main characteristics are: First, information asymmetry is serious. Small farmers cannot effectively grasp the information of agricultural production and demand. Second, it is difficult for agricultural products to use inventory to cope with market demand fluctuations, because agricultural products are generally difficult to be preserved for a long time. Third, the demand and income elasticity of general bulk agricultural products is small. With a substantial increase in national income, the demand for agricultural products may not increase substantially. Fourth, farmers will face the situation that increasing agricultural production does not increase income or even reduce income. Fifth, the agricultural industry has the characteristics of public goods.Everyone has to eat, and everyone has to eat every day. Sixth, the natural risk of agriculture is very large. Seventh, agriculture should pursue the maximization of comprehensive benefits, not just the maximization of economic benefits.Agriculture is not only an economic industry, but also a livelihood industry and a social industry.Agriculture needs to pursue the comprehensive benefits of people's livelihood, environment, culture and economy. Eighth, agriculture is a slow job, not the pursuit of growth speed.For example, it is not good to make meat grow faster. Let the wheat growth speed up, is not a good thing. Ninth, the cost of identifying the quality of agricultural products is large.It is a big error to identify the quality of agricultural products by appearance, color and taste. Tenth, in the case of a fixed population, because the total amount of social food is fixed, and everyone's dietary preference is basically fixed, so the total demand for agricultural products is basically stable, and the demand structure is basically stable.In this case, the production of agricultural products is not good for the society. Eleven, the price of agricultural products objectively needs to be stable, and can not fluctuate greatly.The price of agricultural products is the social basic price. If it fluctuates greatly, it is not only bad for the stable development of economy, but also bad for the stable development of society. Twelfth, for the decentralized small-scale peasant economy, under the condition of market economy, the private operation of agriculture generally makes little profit, or more losses, and even produces large-scale poverty. Thirteenth, under the condition of market economy, agriculture can make great profit through private large capital monopoly operation, but it will cause problems that damage social welfare under the goal of maximizing economic benefits.For example, large capitalists can minimize the supply of agricultural products, through shortage, artificially set monopoly high prices, and maximize profits. Or, by rapidly improving the growth rate of crops, such as beef growth faster, to obtain greater profits.These two cases are seriously damaged social welfare.The above characteristics show that agriculture is a market weakness industry in essence, especially for small-scale peasant economy agriculture, which is a serious market weakness.Since it is a market weakness, it should be a misunderstanding to rely completely on the market to revitalize agriculture. Agriculture objectively needs the government to play a more important role and objectively needs to rely more on planning to revitalize.In addition, the above characteristics also show that agriculture is a more suitable industry for direct public ownership.Of course, there is also a problem of low efficiency in direct public ownership, but this can be achieved by improving the specific form of direct public ownership.For example, strengthening economic accounting management, strong anti-corruption, full democratic decision-making, etc., can partially eliminate some of the shortcomings of direct public ownership.Of course, it is impossible to completely eliminate the shortcomings.In short, there is no perfect system in the world. In the choice of industrial management system, whether to choose public ownership or private ownership, we can only weigh the pros and cons. In the absence of the optimal situation, we can only choose the second best form, and we can not idealize our understanding. Since agriculture is a weak market industry and agriculture is more suitable for direct public ownership, agriculture is a more suitable industry for planned economy.In addition, advanced big data technology also provides favorable conditions for the implementation of planned economy in agriculture.For example, the prediction and estimation of the total demand for agricultural products and the prediction and estimation of the demand structure for agricultural products will have prediction and estimation errors under the big data technology, but the errors will not be too large.And blindly relying on the market to regulate the market supply and demand of agricultural products will inevitably lead to market fluctuations with typical characteristics of the spider web model, either more or less, and ultimately both farmers and urbanites will suffer. In fact, the whole society will suffer, and the whole society will suffer for a long time.Of course, while implementing planned economy, agriculture can also make up for the deficiencies of the plan by giving full play to the advantages of market regulation for some agricultural products that are not related to the national economy and people's livelihood.In general, different types of economic industries need different economic management systems to adapt.Industries suitable for market management systems should let the market play a decisive role, and industries unsuitable for the market need the government to play a better role. As for agriculture, we should explore the establishment of a semi-planned and semi-market management system for macro-agricultural management. As for agricultural micro-production organizations, we should explore the establishment of semi-autonomous and semi-administrative collective farms or state-run farms. In the field of agricultural product circulation, we can explore the establishment of a semi-monopoly purchasing and marketing system. Thank you. Thank you.