发言：张京宏
时间：2022.3.17
阿尔西教授、丹诺维奇教授、朋友们：
刚才贝尔格莱德大学阿尔西教授观点鲜明，即主张中俄远东继续深入合作，必将更加惠及亚洲和东欧人民。大概一周前，国内上海市委党校教授在中美留言论坛发言，观点和阿尔西教授相反——市委党校教授建议中国中央政府和俄罗斯撇清关系，免得西方发达国家各种制裁最后殃及池鱼，本身疫情三年中国经济已经寒风凛冽，疫情冲击、居民消费力萎缩、地方债危机、企业债危机、出口危机等等。不同观点各有依据。我这里从应用经济学视角进行演讲，结合我这次推荐相关项目展开，相对可操作性强一些，但高度就可能不很高了。我围绕跨国金融和跨境投融资展开。
我们从普通老百姓日常谋生说起。前几年出版长篇小说《卤阳湖》时候，我和卤阳湖地区群众有深入对话，因为那是我的家乡，我总设法在各个场合宣传，以期望能促成经济贸易合作，提高当地GDP和群众可支配收入水平（张京宏 著：《卤阳湖》，长篇小说，天津人民出版社，2021）。我有一个发小，比我大两岁，今年四十八岁，这在现在条件的农村都算小伙子了，还经常各地外出打工，现在农村留守劳动力都六七十岁年龄，五十多岁的也多外出打工，主要是打工收入比种地要多一些。几年前在家乡我和发小碰面聊天，发小的妻子说，次日让发小去干泥水匠挣钱，而她去冷库帮人分拣酥梨。我问为什么不夫妻双双去分拣酥梨，还能团聚？发小的妻子回答说：现在农村冷库分拣酥梨都叫中年妇女，一天给¥80块钱；男人去干泥水匠零工，一天¥105块钱还另有一包香烟。这是四五年前真实对话。这反映了劳动力流向是由单位时间工资决定的。泥水匠算技术工，一天105块钱，比分拣酥梨这样相对缺乏技术含量的普工日薪多25块钱。农村打工，平均每天要干10-12小时，我们稍后进行计量分析按每天10小时粗略来算。
陈云题字的中国国内哲学社会科学杂志《管理世界》2019年 8期刊登了罗楚亮（2019）等撰写的关于行业结构、性别歧视与工资差距的论文文献。文献描述了中国国内劳动力小时工资水平变化数据——1995年中国大陆男性普工小时工资3.01元（0.5美元），女性2.54元（0.43美元），2013年对应数据则分别是20.04元（3.3美元）和16.01元（2.66美元）。Liu(2000)研究表明不同所有制企业性别薪资歧视程度不同，私人企业女性薪资相对更低。邢春冰（2014）研究发现教育程度越高则性别薪资差距越小，比如城市公办中学教师岗位男女同工同酬。
一、非高等教育层次男女小时工资
我们列举一个表格来进行明细数据分析。
表1 非高等教育层次男女小时工资一览表（女，18～50周岁）
|
性别 |
职业种类 |
日劳动时间（Hour） |
小时工资(RMB元） |
小时个人所得¥ |
按美元计价＄ |
|
女 |
农村零工城普工 |
10 |
9 |
9 |
1.5 |
|
城市保洁工保姆 |
10 |
36 |
36 |
6 |
|
|
足疗按摩师 |
12 |
80 |
40 |
6.65 |
|
|
SPA油压师 |
12 |
160 |
80 |
13.5 |
|
|
异性色情SPA师 |
12 |
360 |
180 |
30 |
|
|
发廊快速卖淫师 |
12 |
900 |
600 |
50 |
资料来源：发言者整理（2022）
表2 非高等教育层次男女小时工资一览表（男,18～60周岁）
|
性别 |
职业种类 |
日劳动时间（Hour） |
小时工资(RMB元） |
小时个人所得¥ |
按美元计价＄ |
|
男 |
普通民工（普工） |
10 |
16 |
16 |
2.66 |
|
泥瓦匠、装修工 |
10 |
26 |
26 |
4.35 |
|
|
送外卖、开快车 |
12 |
50 |
50 |
8.33 |
|
|
理发师、理发总监 |
12 |
180 |
90 |
15 |
|
|
男性色情SPA师 |
12 |
480 |
240 |
40 |
|
|
男卖淫师（少爷） |
12 |
1200 |
900 |
150 |
资料来源：发言者整理（2022）
我们以农村中青年女性进城为例分析。农村中青年女性一般没有接受过高等教育，进城后一般进厂，电子厂或普工工厂，每月收入不加班也就三四千块，收入少钱不够花，往往家庭矛盾冲突多发。一旦进城从普通工厂跳槽出来，到家政公司当保姆或保洁，收入立刻对标城市标准。一旦思想解放，自愿成为半失足妇女，收入又翻倍——比如SPA油压，城市这种保健养生店，女技师基本来自农村年轻女性，小时收入接近13.5美元（美国普工最低小时工资15美元到18美元），但对应代价是女性要“培训”，要洗脑，要半失足状态。相关文字资料表明，所谓半失足状态，就是以城市退休老年男性为目标客户，以价格¥158~¥238元每小时油压服务为代价，这种服务要求年轻农村女性做服务的时候，特别价格超过¥198元每小时往往要把女人的“好处”露出来，即服务时候要褪去胸罩，任由中老年男性客户摸乳房，同时要帮助男性客户“打飞机”释放，即女性用手帮男性生殖器释放，在这个过程中，女性技术服务标准被要求要解开裤带，脱下裤子和内裤，任由男性客户触摸女性生殖器官。这种服务和对应价位仅仅提供中老年城市男性“摸”年轻农村女性技师的乳房和生殖器，但不提供卖淫。这种服务性质极为模糊，公安派出所治安也没太大花头。如果女性技师收入还要再翻一番，达到小时收入工资30美元，那就要进行色情SPA服务，这种服务客户对象是城市中青年白领，收入能力强，因此价格也高，基本每小时服务¥360~¥600元范围内，服务内容标准是，女性技师全身脱光，先给男性客户背面按摩，然后女性技师要用嘴对男性背部进行舌舔，用女性两个乳房对男性背部进行按摩，并要用舌头舔男性肛门、睾丸；之后男性躺平，女性技师要用嘴含着男性生殖器进行吮吸等。如果要进行卖淫活动，客户另行支付约20~50美元小费。这种情况下，女性技师脱光服务加提供卖淫，每小时收入可达50~80美元。这种会所往往要支付房租、水电费、女技师提成之外另行向治安机关进行利益输送，为价格10%到20%不等。比如一个地方这种会所本来价格¥360块钱每小时，一旦要拉拢治安机关寻求通风报信服务，就需要金钱行贿，则价格变¥398块。
这些服务往往从韩国日本经由香港澳门传入中国内地，有严格企业ISO服务流程管理，是产业链。
从分析方法逻辑说，我们借鉴《资本论》，采取了抽象分析和归纳分析法（马克思：《资本论》，人民出版社1975年版，第2~18页）。要绕过眼花缭乱之表象，拨开不同行业遮羞布，寻找并抽象出共同可比较的因素，即小时工资。小时工资差距形成收入差距，影响劳动力就业流向。一个乡村女性进城，先到工厂或电子厂做普工，熟悉城市和年龄稍大后，便去做保洁或家政保姆，都是经济待遇标准主导其选择——在流动性很高的城市生活中，乡村女性从保洁或家政转向普通的足疗、按摩，小时工资提高10%以上，没有任何道德阻力。从普通足疗、按摩转向半失足状态，即服务城市有退休工资的中老年男性掀起上衣被客户“摸”乳房和半色情服务中脱下裤子让客户“摸”女性生殖器官，决定因素是小时工资再翻一番，而乡村熟人社会舆论制约压力和一起在外打工的妇女老乡道德谴责压力荡然无存。乡村妇女出来挣钱是目标，被摸摸捏捏能搞到钱，不损失什么，又不是农村，妇女们之间在这个目标上是一致的，“出来打工搞不到钱才丢人。”（沈宗南、张京宏：《营销传播学》，世新大学出版中心，2010）
从数字经济学和计量经济学视角看，同时有支付能力和消费意愿的客群才是真正客群。比如中国西北落后地区，一个县城50万人，48万人都是农民，种地为生，老了除了每月一百多块钱国家照顾养老补贴之外，再无收入，那么这个群体人再多，也不会成为服务目标，关键就是没有持续支付能力，无法支撑一个足疗店或油压SPA店基本生存收入。所以广大落后地区乡镇上能看到的商业基本是农资、柴油汽油加油、餐饮小吃、理发，只有到县城或城市，才会有足疗、指压、按摩、浴室、会所。真正支撑消费力的是支付能力，而非人口数量。只有同时具备消费意愿和持续支付能力的人口群体，才是真正客群。同样道理，50万人县城其农村可能45万人，县城5万人，包括五千名财政供养公务员、公办教师、警察等，还有4万五千名青壮年劳动力进城开饭馆、洗车、水果店、杂货店等等，那么这5万人勉强能支撑县城的足疗、指压、按摩、浴室、会所之生存，按每1000人中有6人从事此类服务（包括兼职）比例计算，5万县城人口中，所有的足浴店、指压店、洗浴中心、便民浴室、休闲会所的乡村女性为主的从业人员规模预估在300人左右。
当然，这种预估反过来也可以成为开店选址的指导或参考。比如6名中青年乡村女性，在A县城给老板打工几年，熟悉行情后，到B县城或C城市计划合伙开店单干，选址就很重要（张京宏、沈宗南：《中国民企治理四大问题研究》，麦肯锡——中国营销传播网，http://www.emkt.com.cn/article/342/34242.html. 2007）。开这些店要的是客户数量，仅仅依靠几个“老相好”会很快饿死。客群数量是有效客群数量，有退休金的客群数量，因此要选小区，估算退休人员数量。如果周边几个小区退休人员有三千人左右，退休工资高，社会经济稳定，那么只要这6名中青年乡村女性身材、长相、打扮各方面说得过去，服务实在，不坑蒙拐骗，和治安机关搞好关系，那么肯定挣钱。按每个女性技师每天平均接待5个客户计算，6人每天平均服务30名客户，相当3000人的1%，供求关系相对稳定。按每个客户均做¥198元每小时半色情油压服务计算，女性每个客户劳动收入¥100元，每年基本收入在¥120000~¥180000元。这比在农村不知道要好多少倍。不仅如此，还可以攒钱回农村盖小楼房或到所在县城买房，一百多平方商品房也就是¥400000~¥600000元，干上七八年，县城房子买了，汽车买了，有什么不好？付出成本是什么呢？不就摸摸捏捏客人，然后让客人摸摸捏捏，又有什么实质损失呢？房子不香吗？车子不香吗？富裕不好吗？城市生活方式不好吗？天天洗澡、化妆、漂漂亮亮挣钱不好吗？
因此，经济学分析一旦结合社会实际，便往往能产生巨大威力，产生可信度，即使相关数据未必完全准确甚至存在差异，也不妨碍对整个经济现象之整体认识。
经济学上另一个视角就是，这些非高等教育乡村中青年女性阶层群体，以30岁为年龄中位数，这些群体无论是超市干收银员，还是餐厅当服务员，或是儿童游乐场当售票员，其薪资水平每月三五千元基本到顶了。如何决策，使收益最大化，同时风险最低，是现实的。
前几天浙江商会陈先生陪我到诺维萨德和贝尔格莱德从不同地段看多瑙河，我记忆犹新。多瑙河许多地段周边也是土堆和垃圾，当地吉普赛人生活也贫苦。我问了问，一个五六口人口吉普赛人家庭，常常只有一个人出去工作，每日收入差不多1500第纳尔。100第纳尔相当于人民币五块九毛钱，1500第纳尔折合人民币不到90块钱，要维持五六口人生活。我们看到居住在多瑙河边的吉普赛老人到河边捡柴火回家，以节约支出，不然要花钱买柴。这几天实地考察对我震撼很大。之前在CCTV-15音乐频道看音乐家表演《蓝色多瑙河》，432MHZ的美丽旋律给人们无限美好幻想，以为多瑙河边全是穿白裙子欢笑的年轻贵妇，现实却是看到为了维持生计在多瑙河边捡柴火的吉普赛老太太。站在河边风很大，比黄浦江边的风还大，吹到人脸上，不是很美妙感觉，这就是现实差距。
二、高等教育层次（本科以上学历）男女小时工资
我们同样列举一个表格来进行明细数据分析。
表3 高等教育层次（本科以上）男女小时工资一览表（男女，20～60周岁）
|
性别 |
职业种类 |
日劳动时间（Hour） |
小时工资(RMB元） |
小时个人所得¥ |
按美元计价＄ |
|
男 或 女 |
公司文员 |
8 |
25（含社保、福利） |
18 |
3 |
|
科级公务员 |
8 |
70（含社保、福利） |
60 |
10 |
|
|
大学副教授 |
8 |
70（含社保、福利） |
60 |
10 |
|
|
厅级公务员 |
8 |
110（含社保、福利） |
90 |
15 |
|
|
金融行业中层 |
8 |
200（含社保、福利） |
180 |
30 |
|
|
能源和咨询行业 |
8 |
300（含社保、福利） |
240 |
40 |
资料来源：发言者整理（2022）
需要注意的是，虽然高等教育层次男女同工同酬，没有明显的性别工资等级歧视，但是，女性婚育因素影响女性工作机会质量和收入水平。丁赛（2007）研究表明职场知识女性结婚不利于职业发展。王宇飞（2018）发表在《财经研究》文章指出高等教育层次女性在网络化和数字化时代和男性收入差距有逐渐拉大趋势，而非高等教育层次男女性别在网络时代收入差距有减少趋势。
尽管如此，高等教育层次男女小时工资收入受到户籍属性歧视较为明显。齐良书（2019）在《经济学家》撰文指出相对任何本地户籍高等教育层次男女，外地城镇男、外地城镇女、外地农村男、外地农村女等不同维度歧视和小时工资工作岗位可获得性呈现较为明显相关性。
请注意表3和表1、表2区别。在表3中，小时工资一栏包含了社保、福利等。这说明高等教育阶层是有养老退休保障体系的。任何国家以教育划分社会阶层时候，对应的标志就是收入和养老保障体系。乡村女性到城市打工，做电子厂普工也好，做保洁家政保姆也好，做足疗、指压、按摩也好，提供半失足色情服务也好，最终在城市扎不了根——户籍问题，社会保险问题，养老问题，住房问题，系列问题摆在面前。这就是不读书和读书之区别——高等教育阶层可能在公司是普通职员，可能一个月就三四千块钱工资，但法律规定了要缴纳社保公积金等，为退休提供保障体系。当年老失去劳动能力和收入能力，退休工资是最稳当的安全感来源，这除了退休工资保障，还有医疗保障等，背后差距是巨大利益。以慢性病为例，无论是老年糖尿病，或是老年痛风尿毒症，或心血管疾病，以中国上海为例，有退休城镇职工医保卡的，每月配药自费部分正常两三百块钱，其余报销。但同样药品，若无医保，自费开销则需要5倍以上支出。对老年人来说，没有收入，没有退休金，每月再自费一两千块钱配药，这是非常大的经济压力。相反，若有退休工资四千多块钱，医保制度下常规配药每月两三百块钱，那么吃吃用用是可以有质量地过好晚年生活的。
这个分析启发人们：只要有可能，特别出身最底层没有保障的农村或偏远落后地区的人群，最好都设法不断学习读书，通过教育改变命运。教育背后承载着巨大利益和阶层划分。
中国社会城市化进程中老龄化问题越来越突出，背后养老保障和退休保障成为关键（李克强：《政府工作报告》，2022）。去年冬天在迪拜投融资峰会，闲暇之余去华人餐馆吃饭，有一个给迪拜浙江人老板当厨师的湖南人，五十多岁，主要负责做湘菜，和我聊天谈国内城乡差距。他说他有两个哥哥，一个六十多岁，一个七十多岁。七十多岁的大哥没读书，是农民，没退休金，生活条件很苦。六十多种二哥是早期中专生，以干部身份退休，在县城，有退休金。两个人生活条件差距很大。这个厨师说，他也在上海星级饭店炒过菜，羡慕上海退休老人，每月有几千块退休工资，还有医保，想放松休闲捏脚了，就去郑远元修脚房，四五十块钱，一个小时，很舒服很享受，也很开心。乡下和落后地区没退休金的老人就不行，几十块钱拿不出来。
这些其实也是投融资可以关注的领域。国际资本进入中国，那些行业能投，这是信息（张京宏：《利息伦理和借贷投融资》，经济日报出版社，2019）。
三、中美两国比较优势效率差距和小时工资比较
我们同样列举一个表格来分析。
表4 中美两国比较优势效率差距和小时工资比较（男女，20～60周岁）
|
性别 |
职业种类 |
日劳动时间（Hour） |
小时工资(RMB元） |
小时个人所得¥ |
按美元计价＄ |
|
|
中国普工（男女） |
8 |
|
|
1.5 |
|
美国普工（男女） |
|
|
|
15 |
资料来源：发言者整理（2022）
就同样工作性质比较来说，中美两国差距至少是10倍。中国在高科技和创新以及产权制度许多方面，还有不少知识要学习美国比较先进的领域。
所以，美国的创投基金要通过国际跨国流动到中国，或到亚洲相应国家，那么一定会寻找这种发展差距进行投资。资本基本目的是要求增殖，就是钱生钱，生更多的钱。那么根据马克思的研究，要增殖更大，即∆G最大，因为∆G = G’ - G。所以增加∆G有两个办法：或增大G’，就是增加毛利率，这个难度相当大 ；或减小G。减少G的方法，就是跨国公司产业链不断寻找生产成本洼地，最大可能以低工资、低房租等来把G降低，这样，同等的G’即市场价值条件下，成本低的产品，获得利润就高（马克思：《资本论》第1卷，人民出版社1975年版，第171~177页）。当然，这会带来一个问题，就是资本和劳动力矛盾冲突加剧。比如跨国公司为了降低成本，把工厂从美国搬到中国和越南，这种情况下，美国作为发达国家，国内就业就不好办了，所以这几年美国要求制造业回归本土，本质上是跨国资本和本土劳动就业之间矛盾。就业问题也是每个国家重点要面对的。
四、全球发展利益固化和我国发展利益固化
利益固化是社会资源抱团固化之外在表现之一。马克思在《哥达纲领批判》中分析过利益固化，即利益和劳动中贡献作用成正比。发达国家和发展中国家也存在利益固化。一国内部不同阶层和利益集团之间也存在利益固化。全国人民大团结过程中也有地方和部门利益冲突。城乡二元结构形成的利益固化，是乡村中青年女性进城瞄准城市退休老年男性和城市中青年白领为“找钱”目标的社会土壤环境条件之一。至于瞄准客群后，怎么服务，付出什么，获得什么，那是操作层面的技术环节问题。在《费尔巴哈的提纲》中，马克思指出，人的本质在其现实性上，是其一切社会关系的总和（马克思、恩格斯：《马克思恩格斯选集》第1卷，人民出版社1974年版，第18~19页）。社会关系背后就是社会利益。农村青年到城市打工，男性开滴滴快车、送外卖、开理发店、建材店、水果店、汽修店、小吃店，女性做足疗、做按摩、美容、酒店服务、餐厅服务等这些最最底层工作之外，几乎没有选择。利益固化给出不同阶层人员可选择方案极为有限。
利益固化是社会进一步发展的绊脚石。谁都知道利益固化不好，但一旦具体到个人利益，就两回事。正如李克强总理（2014）说的，触及利益比触及灵魂还难。
同理，利益固化对资本跨国流动也有羁绊。流动性是资本进行循环增殖的前提。没有资本循环运动，资本增殖就无法完成。因此，利益固化是全球各国共同面临的新挑战。
五、小结与展望
数据即力量。这次演讲列举的数据，是一定历史时期全球不同国家不同阶层经常发展量化数字信息的比较呈现。数据来源方法，分为直接法和间接法。间接法之一就是引用文献，但引用也涉及以讹传讹。直接方法之一，就是和不同时代代表人物深度访谈获取数据。深度访谈获取的数据，总体可信度是合格的，比如采访一个退休职工不同年龄阶段月工资水平等，误差是可控的。
《圣经·传道书》有一句话：There is nothing new under the sun. 翻译成中文就是“太阳底下无新鲜事。”现在历史阶段碰到的问题，过去碰到过，今后还会碰到。但如何处理，却有不同智慧。资本跨境流通和国际投融资中，资本自由流动的空间还有，汇率和利率相应自由化改革在全球资本市场发展过程中也不断进行。因此，我们可以预见，疫情后全球资本流动还会出现新高潮，西方发达国家和亚非拉发展中国家之间固有利益固化将有新洗牌，不同国家内部各阶层在疫情天灾和行业结构变化、政治经济条件变化过程中有新调整。作为金融投融资工作者，应当耐心分析，冷静思考，准备迎接新的伟大历史机遇期的到来。（完）
NS Speech: Frontier Literature—Transnational Financing, Benefit Solidification, Comparative Advantage, Efficiency, and Hourly Wages
Speaker: Zhang Jinghong
Time: 2022.3.17
Professor Arcy, Professor Danovich, friends:
Just now, Professor Arsi from the University of Belgrade has a clear point of view, that is, he advocates that the continued in-depth cooperation between China and Russia in the Far East will surely benefit the people of Asia and Eastern Europe. About a week ago, a professor from the Shanghai Municipal Party School gave a speech on the China-US Message Forum, and his opinion was the opposite of that of Prof. Arsi. The professor of the Shanghai Municipal Party School suggested that the Chinese central government and Russia should distance themselves from each other, lest the various sanctions of western developed countries would eventually bring disaster to Chiyu. In 2018, China's economy has been cold and windy, with the impact of the epidemic, shrinking residents' spending power, local debt crisis, corporate debt crisis, export crisis and so on. Different views have their own basis. Here I will give a speech from the perspective of applied economics, combined with the relevant projects I recommend this time, it is relatively more maneuverable, but the height may not be very high. I focus on cross-border finance and cross-border investment and financing.
Let's start with ordinary people's daily livelihood. When the novel "Luoyang Lake" was published a few years ago, I had an in-depth dialogue with the people in the Luyang Lake area. Because that is my hometown, I always tried to publicize it on various occasions, hoping to promote economic and trade cooperation and increase the local GDP. and the level of disposable income of the masses (Zhang Jinghong: "Luoyang Lake", novel, Tianjin People's Publishing House, 2021). I have a young boy who is two years older than me. He is forty-eight years old this year. He is considered a young man in rural areas with current conditions. Going out to work more is mainly because the income from working is more than that from farming. A few years ago in my hometown, I met and chatted with Faxiao. Faxiao’s wife said that the next day, Faxiao would be asked to work as a plasterer to make money, while she went to the cold storage to help people sort pears. I asked why the husband and wife both went to sort the crisp pears and could be reunited? The young wife replied: Now, middle-aged women who sort pears in cold storages in rural areas are paid ¥80 a day; men go to work as a plasterer, and they get ¥105 a day and a pack of cigarettes. This is a real conversation four or five years ago. This reflects that the flow of labor is determined by the wage per hour. A plasterer is a skilled worker, earning 105 yuan a day, which is 25 yuan more than the average daily salary of a relatively unskilled worker like picking pears. Working in rural areas requires an average of 10-12 hours a day. We will calculate it as a rough calculation of 10 hours a day in our quantitative analysis later.
The Chinese domestic philosophy and social science journal "Management World", inscribed by Chen Yun, published papers on industry structure, gender discrimination and wage gaps written by Luo Chuliang (2019) and others in the 2019 Issue 8. The literature describes the change in the hourly wage level of the domestic labor force - in 1995 the average hourly wage of men in mainland China was 3.01 yuan ($0.5), and the hourly wage of women was 2.54 yuan ($0.43), while the corresponding figures in 2013 were 20.04 yuan ($3.3) and 16.01 yuan ($2.66). Liu (2000) research shows that gender wage discrimination differs in different ownership enterprises, and female wages in private enterprises are relatively lower. Xing Chunbing (2014) found that the higher the education level, the smaller the gender pay gap, such as equal pay for men and women for equal work in urban public middle school teachers.
1. Hourly wages of men and women at the non-tertiary level
We list a table for detailed data analysis.
Table 1 List of hourly wages for men and women at non-tertiary level (female, 18-50 years old)
Source: Curated by Speakers (2022)
Table 2 List of hourly wages for men and women at non-tertiary level (male, 18-60 years old)
|
性别 |
职业种类 |
日劳动时间（Hour） |
小时工资(RMB元） |
小时个人所得¥ |
按美元计价＄ |
|
男 |
普通民工（普工） |
10 |
16 |
16 |
2.66 |
|
泥瓦匠、装修工 |
10 |
26 |
26 |
4.35 |
|
|
送外卖、开快车 |
12 |
50 |
50 |
8.33 |
|
|
理发师、理发总监 |
12 |
180 |
90 |
15 |
|
|
男性色情SPA师 |
12 |
480 |
240 |
40 |
|
|
男卖淫师（少爷） |
12 |
1200 |
900 |
150 |
|
性别 |
职业种类 |
日劳动时间（Hour） |
小时工资(RMB元） |
小时个人所得¥ |
按美元计价＄ |
|
女 |
农村零工城普工 |
10 |
9 |
9 |
1.5 |
|
城市保洁工保姆 |
10 |
36 |
36 |
6 |
|
|
足疗按摩师 |
12 |
80 |
40 |
6.65 |
|
|
SPA油压师 |
12 |
160 |
80 |
13.5 |
|
|
异性色情SPA师 |
12 |
360 |
180 |
30 |
|
|
发廊快速卖淫师 |
12 |
900 |
600 |
50 |
Source: Curated by Speakers (2022)
We take rural young and middle-aged women entering the city as an example. Young and middle-aged women in rural areas generally have not received higher education. After entering the city, they usually enter factories, electronics factories or general labor factories. Their monthly income is only 3,000 to 4,000 yuan without overtime work. Once you enter the city and leave an ordinary factory to work as a nanny or cleaner in a housekeeping company, your income will immediately match the city standard. Once the mind is emancipated, she voluntarily becomes a half-failed woman, and her income doubles again—for example, SPA oil pressure, urban health care stores, female technicians are basically young women in rural areas, and the hourly income is close to 13.5 US dollars (the minimum hourly wage of a general worker in the United States is 15 US dollars). to $18), but at the cost of “training,” brainwashing, and half-stumbled state for women. Relevant texts show that the so-called semi-slip state refers to the target customers of retired elderly men in urban areas, at the price of ¥158~¥238 per hour of hydraulic service. When this service requires young rural women to provide services, special prices are available. More than ¥198 per hour is often to reveal the "benefits" of women, that is, to take off the bra during service, let middle-aged and elderly male customers touch their breasts, and at the same time help male customers to "jump" to release, that is, women help men with their hands Genital release, during which the female technical service standard is required to untie the belt, remove the pants and panties, and allow the male client to touch the female genitals. This service and corresponding price only provide middle-aged and elderly urban men "touching" the breasts and genitals of young rural female technicians, but not prostitution. The nature of this kind of service is extremely vague, and the public security police station is not too complicated. If the income of female technicians is to double again and reach an hourly wage of $30, then they will have to provide erotic SPA services. The customers of this service are young and middle-aged urban white-collar workers, with strong income capabilities, so the price is also high, and the basic hourly service is provided. Within the range of ¥360~¥600, the standard of service content is that the female technician will strip off the whole body and massage the back of the male customer first, and then the female technician will use her mouth to lick the back of the male, and use the two breasts of the female to massage the back of the male. And use the tongue to lick the male anus and testicles; then the male lies flat, and the female technician needs to hold the male genitals in the mouth to suck and so on. If you want to engage in prostitution activities, customers will pay an additional tip of about 20 to 50 US dollars. In this case, female technicians can earn between $50 and $80 an hour for stripping services and prostitution. Such clubs often have to pay rent, utility bills, and female technicians' commissions to transmit benefits to public security organs, ranging from 10% to 20% of the price. For example, the original price of such a club in a place is ¥360 per hour. Once you want to win over the public security organs for information service, you need money to pay bribes, and the price will change to ¥398.
These services are often introduced into mainland China from South Korea and Japan via Hong Kong and Macau. There are strict enterprise ISO service process management, which is an industrial chain.
From the perspective of analysis method logic, we draw lessons from "Das Kapital" and adopt abstract analysis and inductive analysis methods (Marx: "Das Kapital", People's Publishing House, 1975 edition, pp. 2-18). To bypass the dazzling appearance, pull aside the fig leaf of different industries, find and abstract the common comparable factor, namely hourly wages. The hourly wage gap creates an income gap and affects the flow of labor employment. When a rural woman enters the city, she first goes to a factory or an electronics factory to work as a general worker, and when she is familiar with the city and gets older, she becomes a cleaning or housekeeper, all of which are dominated by economic treatment standards—living in a city with high mobility Among them, rural women switch from cleaning or housekeeping to ordinary pedicures and massages, and their hourly wages are increased by more than 10% without any moral resistance. From ordinary pedicures and massages to a half-slip state, that is, middle-aged and elderly men with retirement wages in the service city lift their shirts to be "touched" by customers and take off their pants in semi-erotic services to allow customers to "touch" female reproductive organs. The determining factor is the hourly wage It doubled again, and the pressure of social public opinion restraint by village acquaintances and the moral condemnation pressure of women and fellow villagers working abroad disappeared. It is the goal of rural women to go out to earn money. They can get money if they are touched, and they have nothing to lose, and they are not rural. Women have the same goal on this. （Shen Zongnan and Zhang Jinghong: Marketing Communication, Shih Hsin University Publishing Center, 2010)
From the perspective of digital economics and econometrics, customers who have both the ability to pay and the willingness to consume are the real customers. For example, in the backward areas of Northwest China, a county has 500,000 people, and 480,000 people are farmers, farming for a living. When they get old, they have no income except for the state care and pension subsidy of more than 100 yuan per month. The key is that there is no continuous payment ability, and it cannot support the basic survival income of a pedicure shop or hydraulic SPA shop. Therefore, the businesses that can be seen in the villages and towns in the vast backward areas are basically agricultural materials, diesel and gasoline refueling, food and snacks, and haircuts. What really supports consumption power is the ability to pay, not the number of people. Only the population group that has both the willingness to consume and the ability to pay continuously can be the real customer group. [For the middle-aged and elderly retirement groups as a whole, the retirement salary is the guarantee of continuous payment ability. ] In the same way, a county with a population of 500,000 may have 450,000 in its rural areas, and a county seat of 50,000, including 5,000 government-supported civil servants, public teachers, police, etc., and 45,000 young and middle-aged laborers who enter the city to open restaurants and wash cars. , fruit shops, grocery stores, etc., then these 50,000 people can barely support the survival of foot massage, acupressure, massage, bathrooms, and clubs in the county, calculated based on the ratio of 6 people per 1,000 people engaged in such services (including part-time jobs) , Among the 50,000 county population, all the foot bath shops, Shiatsu shops, bath centers, convenience bathrooms, and leisure clubs are estimated to be about 300 rural women.
Of course, this estimate in turn can also be a guide or reference for store location selection. For example, 6 young and middle-aged rural women have worked for their bosses in county A for several years. After they are familiar with the market, they plan to open a store in partnership in county B or city C. The location selection is very important (Zhang Jinghong and Shen Zongnan: "Research on Four Issues in the Governance of Chinese Private Enterprises"). ", McKinsey - China Marketing Communication Network, http://www.emkt.com.cn/article/342/34242.html. 2007). The key to opening these stores is the number of customers, and just relying on a few "old friends" will quickly starve to death. The number of customer groups is the number of valid customer groups and the number of customer groups with pensions. Therefore, it is necessary to select a district and estimate the number of retirees. If there are about 3,000 retirees in the surrounding communities, high retirement wages, and social and economic stability, then as long as these 6 young and middle-aged rural women are reasonable in all aspects of body, appearance, and dress, their services are real, and they will not be deceived or cheated, and they will engage with public security organs. If you have a good relationship, you will definitely make money. According to the calculation that each female technician receives an average of 5 customers per day, 6 people serve an average of 30 customers per day, which is equivalent to 1% of the 3,000 people, and the supply and demand relationship is relatively stable. According to the calculation that each customer provides ¥198 per hour of semi-erotic hydraulic service, the labor income of each female customer is ¥100, and the annual basic income is ¥120,000~¥180,000. This is many times better than not knowing in the countryside. Not only that, but you can also save money to go back to the countryside to build a small building or buy a house in the county where you are located. More than 100 square meters of commercial housing is ¥400,000~¥600,000 yuan. After working for seven or eight years, you can buy a house in the county town and buy a car. What's wrong? Okay? What is the cost? If you don't just touch and pinch the guests, and then let the guests touch and pinch, what is the real loss? Doesn't the house smell good? Doesn't the car smell good? Is it bad to be rich? Is the urban lifestyle bad? Isn't it bad to take a bath, put on makeup, and be pretty to earn money every day?
Therefore, once economic analysis is combined with social reality, it can often generate great power and credibility. Even if the relevant data may not be completely accurate or even there are differences, it does not hinder the overall understanding of the entire economic phenomenon.
Another perspective in economics is that these non-higher education rural middle-aged and young female class groups have a median age of 30 years old. Whether these groups are cashiers in supermarkets, waiters in restaurants, or conductors in children's playgrounds, The salary level of three to five thousand yuan per month has basically reached its peak. How to make decisions to maximize returns while minimizing risk is realistic.
A few days ago, Mr. Chen from the Zhejiang Chamber of Commerce accompanied me to Novi Sad and Belgrade to see the Danube from different locations, and I still remember it vividly. Many sections of the Danube are also surrounded by mounds and garbage, and the local Gypsies live in poverty. I asked, a family of five or six gypsies, often only one person goes out to work, and earns about 1,500 dinars a day. 100 dinars are equivalent to five yuan and nine cents in RMB, and 1,500 dinars are equivalent to less than 90 yuan in RMB, and it is necessary to support five or six people. We saw old gypsies who lived by the Danube go to the river to pick up firewood and go home to save money, otherwise they would have to spend money to buy firewood. The field trips over the past few days have shocked me a lot. I watched musicians perform "Blue Danube" on the CCTV-15 music channel before. The beautiful melody of 432MHZ gave people infinitely beautiful illusions. They thought that the Danube was full of young ladies in white dresses and laughing. An old gypsy lady collecting firewood by the Danube. Standing by the river is very windy, stronger than the wind by the Huangpu River. It doesn't feel very wonderful when it blows on people's faces. This is the reality gap.
2. Hourly wages of men and women at higher education level (undergraduate degree or above)
We also list a table for detailed data analysis.
Table 3 List of hourly wages for men and women at higher education level (undergraduate and above) (men and women, 20-60 years old)
|
性别 |
职业种类 |
日劳动时间（Hour） |
小时工资(RMB元） |
小时个人所得¥ |
按美元计价＄ |
|
男 或 女 |
公司文员 |
8 |
25（含社保、福利） |
18 |
3 |
|
科级公务员 |
8 |
70（含社保、福利） |
60 |
10 |
|
|
大学副教授 |
8 |
70（含社保、福利） |
60 |
10 |
|
|
厅级公务员 |
8 |
110（含社保、福利） |
90 |
15 |
|
|
金融行业中层 |
8 |
200（含社保、福利） |
180 |
30 |
|
|
能源和咨询行业 |
8 |
300（含社保、福利） |
240 |
40 |
Source: Curated by Speakers (2022)
It should be noted that although men and women at the higher education level receive equal pay for equal work and there is no obvious gender wage grade discrimination, the factors of women's marriage and childbearing affect the quality of women's job opportunities.volume and income level. Ding Sai (2007) research shows that the marriage of women with knowledge in the workplace is not conducive to career development. Wang Yufei (2018) published an article in "Finance and Economics Research" that pointed out that the income gap between women and men at higher education levels has gradually widened in the Internet and digital age, while the income gap between men and women at non-tertiary education levels has decreased in the Internet age.
Despite this, the hourly wage income of men and women at the higher education level is discriminated against by household registration attributes. Qi Liangshu (2019) wrote in The Economist that compared with men and women of any local household registration level of higher education, different dimensions of discrimination and availability of hourly wage jobs, such as urban males, urban females, rural males, and rural females, are more prominent. obvious correlation.
Please note the difference between Table 3 and Table 1 and Table 2. In Table 3, the hourly wage column includes social security, benefits, etc. This shows that the higher education class has an old-age retirement security system. When any country divides social classes by education, the corresponding signs are income and old-age security systems. Rural women go to cities to work part-time jobs, whether as general workers in electronics factories, or as cleaning and housekeeping nannies, or as pedicures, shiatsu, massages, or half-footed pornographic services, but ultimately they can’t take root in cities—the household registration issue, Social insurance issues, pension issues, housing issues, and a series of issues are in front of us. This is the difference between not studying and studying - the higher education class may be ordinary employees in the company, and they may be paid three or four thousand yuan a month, but the law stipulates that they must pay social security funds to provide a security system for retirement. When old people lose their ability to work and earn income, retirement wages are the most secure source of security. In addition to retirement wage security, there are also medical security and so on. The gap behind them is huge. Taking chronic diseases as an example, whether it is senile diabetes, senile gouty uremia, or cardiovascular disease, taking Shanghai, China as an example, if you have a medical insurance card for retired urban workers, the out-of-pocket part of the monthly dispensing is normally 200 to 300 yuan, and the rest is reimbursed. . But for the same drugs, if there is no medical insurance, the out-of-pocket expenses will need to be more than 5 times the expenditure. For the elderly, there is no income, no pension, and one or two thousand yuan per month to dispense medicines at their own expense, which is a huge financial pressure. On the contrary, if the retirement salary is more than 4,000 yuan, and the regular dispensing under the medical insurance system is 200 to 300 yuan per month, then you can live a good old age with good quality.
This analysis inspires people: as long as possible, especially those from rural or remote and backward areas with insecure backgrounds at the bottom, it is best to try to keep learning to read and change their fate through education. There are huge interests and class divisions behind education.
In the process of urbanization in China, the problem of aging is becoming more and more prominent, and old-age security and retirement security have become the key behind it (Li Keqiang: "Government Work Report", 2022). At the Dubai Investment and Financing Summit last winter, I went to eat at a Chinese restaurant in my spare time. There was a Hunanese who worked as a chef for the owner of a Zhejiang native in Dubai. He was in his fifties and was mainly in charge of cooking Hunan cuisine. He chatted with me about the gap between urban and rural areas in China. He said he had two older brothers, one in his sixties and one in his seventies. The eldest brother, who is in his 70s, has no education, is a farmer, has no pension, and lives in very difficult conditions. More than 60 second brothers are early secondary school students, retired as cadres, and have pensions in the county seat. The living conditions of the two people are very different. The chef said that he has also cooked in a star-rated restaurant in Shanghai, and he is envious of the retired old people in Shanghai. He has several thousand yuan a month in retirement salary and medical insurance. Money, an hour, very comfortable, very enjoyable, and very happy. Elderly people in rural and backward areas who do not have pensions will not be able to do so, and they cannot afford tens of dollars.
In fact, these are also areas that investment and financing can focus on. When international capital enters China, those industries can invest. This is information (Zhang Jinghong: "Interest Ethics and Lending Investment and Financing", Economic Daily Press, 2019).
3. Comparison of the comparative advantage, efficiency gap and hourly wages between China and the United States
We also list a table for analysis.
Table 4 Comparative advantage efficiency gap and hourly wage comparison between China and the United States (male and female, 20-60 years old)
|
性别 |
职业种类 |
日劳动时间（Hour） |
小时工资(RMB元） |
小时个人所得¥ |
按美元计价＄ |
|
|
中国普工（男女） |
8 |
|
|
1.5 |
|
美国普工（男女） |
|
|
|
15 |
Source: Curated by Speakers (2022)
As far as the nature of the same work is concerned, the gap between China and the United States is at least 10 times. China still has a lot of knowledge to learn from the more advanced fields of the United States in many aspects of high technology and innovation, as well as the property rights system.
Therefore, if the venture capital funds of the United States want to flow to China through international cross-border flow, or to the corresponding countries in Asia, they will definitely look for this development gap to invest. The basic purpose of capital is to demand proliferation, that is, money generates money, and more money is generated. Then according to Marx's research, the proliferation is larger, that is, ΔG is the largest, because ΔG = G' - G. So there are two ways to increase ΔG: or increase G', which is to increase gross profit margin, which is quite difficult; or decrease G. The way to reduce G is to constantly look for production cost depressions in the industrial chain of multinational companies, and it is possible to reduce G with low wages and low rents. Gao (Marx: "Das Kapital" Volume 1, People's Publishing House, 1975 edition, pp. 171-177). Of course, this will bring about a problem, that is, the conflict between capital and labor will intensify. For example, in order to reduce costs, multinational companies have moved factories from the United States to China and Vietnam. In this case, the United States, as a developed country, will not be able to manage domestic employment. Therefore, in recent years, the United States has required manufacturing to return to the country, which is essentially a multinational The contradiction between capital and local labor employment. The employment problem is also a priority for every country to face.
Fourth, the solidification of global development interests and the solidification of my country's development interests
The solidification of interests is one of the external manifestations of the solidification of social resources. In the Critique of the Gotha Program, Marx analyzed the solidification of interests, that is, interests are proportional to the contribution of labor. There are also solidified interests in developed and developing countries. There are also solidified interests among different classes and interest groups within a country. There are also conflicts of interest between local and departmental interests in the process of the National People's Great Unity. The solidification of interests formed by the urban-rural dual structure is one of the social soil and environmental conditions for rural young and middle-aged women to go to cities to target retired elderly men and urban young and middle-aged white-collar workers to “find money”. As for how to serve, what to pay, and what to get after targeting customers, that is a technical issue at the operational level. In "Feuerbach's Theses", Marx pointed out that the essence of man is the sum of all its social relations in its reality (Marx and Engels: Selected Works of Marx and Engels, Vol. 1, People's Publishing House, 1974 edition, 18-19). Behind social relations are social interests. Young people from rural areas go to work in cities. Men drive Didi Express, food delivery, barbershops, building materials stores, fruit stores, auto repair shops, snack bars, and women do pedicures, massages, beauty treatments, hotel services, restaurant services, etc. Outside of low-level work, there are few options. The solidification of interests gives people of different classes extremely limited options.
The solidification of interests is a stumbling block for the further development of society. Everyone knows that it is not good to solidify interests, but once it is specific to personal interests, it is two different things. As Premier Li Keqiang (2014) said, it is harder to touch the interests than the soul.
In the same way, the solidification of interests also has fetters on the cross-border flow of capital. Liquidity is the premise for the circular proliferation of capital. Without the circular movement of capital, capital proliferation cannot be completed. Therefore, the consolidation of interests is a new challenge faced by all countries in the world.
V. Summary and Outlook
Data is power. The data listed in this speech is a comparative presentation of quantitative digital information frequently developed in different countries and different classes in the world during a certain historical period. Data source methods are divided into direct method and indirect method. One of the indirect methods is citing literature, but citing also involves spreading falsehood. One of the direct methods is to obtain data through in-depth interviews with representatives of different eras. The overall credibility of the data obtained from the in-depth interviews is qualified. For example, when interviewing a retired employee about the monthly salary levels of different ages, the errors are controllable.
There is a sentence in "The Book of Ecclesiastes": There is nothing new under the sun. Translated into Chinese, it means "there is nothing new under the sun." The problems encountered in the current historical stage have been encountered in the past and will be encountered in the future. But how to deal with it, there are different wisdom. In the cross-border circulation of capital and international investment and financing, there is still room for the free flow of capital, and the corresponding liberalization reform of exchange rates and interest rates is also being carried out in the development process of the global capital market. Therefore, we can foresee that there will be a new upsurge in global capital flows after the epidemic, the consolidation of inherent interests between developed Western countries and developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America will have a new reshuffle, and various classes within different countries will experience natural disasters in the epidemic and changes in industry structure. , There are new adjustments in the process of changing political and economic conditions. As a financial investment and financing worker, you should analyze patiently, think calmly, and prepare for the arrival of a new period of great historical opportunity. (over)