——新兴市场开始蹒跚而行
信心已经开始在新兴市场上崩溃了。年初，许多人还在期望那些发展中国家不会受到美国经济放缓的波及，但显然他们还没有修炼到这个地步。经济过热的征候是，多数发展中的经济体被高油价和高物价导致的通货膨胀所缠身，并且到目前为止还没有很好地解决。去年股市上的至爱，中国和印度，已经急剧地跌落了。
政府和央行被迫做出一些艰难的决定，例如减少燃料补贴。诸如政策手段，虽受自由市场人士的欢迎(否则就是市场垄断了)，但增加了标题--通货膨胀。权威测算的11大亚洲经济体的GDP通胀率从一年前的3.5%升到4月份的6.8%。
一些中央银行被迫选择从紧的货币政策。印度的最晚，在6月24日，已经在一个月内第二次提高利率，即使高利率将意味着经济增长的放缓。但央行别无它法。任何国家如果不能通过加息控制通胀在可控范围内的话，都会把投资者吓跑。南非和越南未捂住价格的盖子而已受到了货币贬值的惩罚。
在经济问题涌现时，二十多亿在过去二周中每周蒸发了。惊奇的是，或许，新兴市场还未显示出恶化的迹象; 摩根斯坦利新兴市场指数到目前为止今年12.4%的衰退，相对全球市场回报，不见得有多么恶化。
(未完成，随后补）
Losing their halo
Jun 26th 2008
From The Economist print edition
Emerging markets start to falter
Illustration by Satoshi Kambayashi
CONFIDENCE has begun to crack in emerging markets. Earlier this year, many people had still dared to hope that much of the developing world would decouple from the slowing American economy. But it has achieved this feat rather too well. There are signs of overheating; most developing economies are grappling with, and so far failing to defeat, the inflationary effects of high oil and food prices. Last year’s stockmarket darlings, China and India, have fallen sharply.
Governments and central banks have been forced into some difficult decisions, such as reducing fuel subsidies. That policy shift, though welcomed by lovers of free markets (if not the public), has pushed up headline inflation. Standard Chartered calculates that the GDP-weighted inflation rate for 11 big Asian economies was 6.8% in April, up from 3.5% a year ago.
Some central banks are reluctantly opting to tighten monetary policy. India’s was the latest, raising interest rates for the second time in a month on June 24th, even though higher rates will mean slower economic growth. But central banks will be damned either way. Any country that fails to raise rates enough to keep inflation under control will scare away investors. South Africa and Vietnam have failed to keep the lid on prices and have been duly punished with a depreciating currency.
As the economic problems have mounted, more than $2 billion has been taken out of emerging-market funds in each of the past two weeks. The surprise, perhaps, is that emerging markets have not performed even more poorly; the MSCI emerging-markets index’s 12.4% decline so far this year is only a little worse than the return of the global market.
Emerging markets benefit from the heavy weighting of commodity-related stocks in the index (more than a third, according to Merrill Lynch). The overall market is unlikely to plummet when mining and energy stocks are holding up so well.
The corollary, however, is that emerging markets will be vulnerable if commodity prices tumble. “Earlier in this decade, conditions were ideal for emerging markets, because commodity prices were going up and local interest rates were going down,” says Michael Hartnett, a strategist at Merrill Lynch. “Now interest rates are rising and there is the risk that commodity prices could at some point correct.”
Emerging markets may also start to lose the halo they have recently worn with such pride. When the credit crunch began last summer, they were talked up as the new “havens”. After all, enthusiasts pointed out, it was they that now had the current-account surpluses and America that was depending on overseas investors.
Not all emerging markets, though, were such paragons. Even though the developing world had improved its economic performance in aggregate, many countries with iffy records got a “free pass”, thanks to the general improvement in sentiment. Indeed some vulnerable countries, such as Turkey, benefited from the “carry trade” as investors piled into their currencies because of their high interest rates.
Now investors are starting to differentiate between the weak and the strong, singling out those countries (such as the Baltic nations) where the economic imbalances look egregious. The downside of the carry trade is emerging; those high interest rates are on offer because of the risk of inflation or currency depreciation.
At least emerging-market equities look rather less pricey than they did a year ago. They are trading on a small price/earnings (p/e) premium to the world index, but the gap is much smaller than it was in 2007. The Chinese market is now on roughly the same historic p/e ratio (17) as America, and if you believe forecasts of 28% earnings growth this year and 30% next, might even be cheaper.
But then again, emerging markets probably should trade at a discount, as they have for much of the past 20 years. After all, central banks in the developing nations have a far worse record in balancing inflation and growth than, say, the Federal Reserve.
Nor should blind faith in the faster growth prospects of emerging markets give investors comfort. Figures from James Montier, a strategist at Société Générale, show that GDP growth and real returns from emerging markets have been negatively correlated over the past 20 years. In other words, the fastest-growing economies produced the lowest returns for shareholders.
Emerging markets may not face the same risks as they did a decade ago, when hot money fled in response to the Asian crisis. But the risks have changed rather than disappeared.
http://www.economist.com/research/articlesbysubject/displaystory.cfm?subjectid=478048&story_id=11637807
信心已经开始在新兴市场上崩溃了。年初，许多人还在期望那些发展中国家不会受到美国经济放缓的波及，但显然他们还没有修炼到这个地步。经济过热的征候是，多数发展中的经济体被高油价和高物价导致的通货膨胀所缠身，并且到目前为止还没有很好地解决。去年股市上的至爱，中国和印度，已经急剧地跌落了。
政府和央行被迫做出一些艰难的决定，例如减少燃料补贴。诸如政策手段，虽受自由市场人士的欢迎(否则就是市场垄断了)，但增加了标题--通货膨胀。权威测算的11大亚洲经济体的GDP通胀率从一年前的3.5%升到4月份的6.8%。
一些中央银行被迫选择从紧的货币政策。印度的最晚，在6月24日，已经在一个月内第二次提高利率，即使高利率将意味着经济增长的放缓。但央行别无它法。任何国家如果不能通过加息控制通胀在可控范围内的话，都会把投资者吓跑。南非和越南未捂住价格的盖子而已受到了货币贬值的惩罚。
在经济问题涌现时，二十多亿在过去二周中每周蒸发了。惊奇的是，或许，新兴市场还未显示出恶化的迹象; 摩根斯坦利新兴市场指数到目前为止今年12.4%的衰退，相对全球市场回报，不见得有多么恶化。
(未完成，随后补）
Losing their halo
Jun 26th 2008
From The Economist print edition
Emerging markets start to falter
Illustration by Satoshi Kambayashi
CONFIDENCE has begun to crack in emerging markets. Earlier this year, many people had still dared to hope that much of the developing world would decouple from the slowing American economy. But it has achieved this feat rather too well. There are signs of overheating; most developing economies are grappling with, and so far failing to defeat, the inflationary effects of high oil and food prices. Last year’s stockmarket darlings, China and India, have fallen sharply.
Governments and central banks have been forced into some difficult decisions, such as reducing fuel subsidies. That policy shift, though welcomed by lovers of free markets (if not the public), has pushed up headline inflation. Standard Chartered calculates that the GDP-weighted inflation rate for 11 big Asian economies was 6.8% in April, up from 3.5% a year ago.
Some central banks are reluctantly opting to tighten monetary policy. India’s was the latest, raising interest rates for the second time in a month on June 24th, even though higher rates will mean slower economic growth. But central banks will be damned either way. Any country that fails to raise rates enough to keep inflation under control will scare away investors. South Africa and Vietnam have failed to keep the lid on prices and have been duly punished with a depreciating currency.
As the economic problems have mounted, more than $2 billion has been taken out of emerging-market funds in each of the past two weeks. The surprise, perhaps, is that emerging markets have not performed even more poorly; the MSCI emerging-markets index’s 12.4% decline so far this year is only a little worse than the return of the global market.
Emerging markets benefit from the heavy weighting of commodity-related stocks in the index (more than a third, according to Merrill Lynch). The overall market is unlikely to plummet when mining and energy stocks are holding up so well.
The corollary, however, is that emerging markets will be vulnerable if commodity prices tumble. “Earlier in this decade, conditions were ideal for emerging markets, because commodity prices were going up and local interest rates were going down,” says Michael Hartnett, a strategist at Merrill Lynch. “Now interest rates are rising and there is the risk that commodity prices could at some point correct.”
Emerging markets may also start to lose the halo they have recently worn with such pride. When the credit crunch began last summer, they were talked up as the new “havens”. After all, enthusiasts pointed out, it was they that now had the current-account surpluses and America that was depending on overseas investors.
Not all emerging markets, though, were such paragons. Even though the developing world had improved its economic performance in aggregate, many countries with iffy records got a “free pass”, thanks to the general improvement in sentiment. Indeed some vulnerable countries, such as Turkey, benefited from the “carry trade” as investors piled into their currencies because of their high interest rates.
Now investors are starting to differentiate between the weak and the strong, singling out those countries (such as the Baltic nations) where the economic imbalances look egregious. The downside of the carry trade is emerging; those high interest rates are on offer because of the risk of inflation or currency depreciation.
At least emerging-market equities look rather less pricey than they did a year ago. They are trading on a small price/earnings (p/e) premium to the world index, but the gap is much smaller than it was in 2007. The Chinese market is now on roughly the same historic p/e ratio (17) as America, and if you believe forecasts of 28% earnings growth this year and 30% next, might even be cheaper.
But then again, emerging markets probably should trade at a discount, as they have for much of the past 20 years. After all, central banks in the developing nations have a far worse record in balancing inflation and growth than, say, the Federal Reserve.
Nor should blind faith in the faster growth prospects of emerging markets give investors comfort. Figures from James Montier, a strategist at Société Générale, show that GDP growth and real returns from emerging markets have been negatively correlated over the past 20 years. In other words, the fastest-growing economies produced the lowest returns for shareholders.
Emerging markets may not face the same risks as they did a decade ago, when hot money fled in response to the Asian crisis. But the risks have changed rather than disappeared.
http://www.economist.com/research/articlesbysubject/displaystory.cfm?subjectid=478048&story_id=11637807