宋圭武观点70：面对大范围传染病的防治客观需要国家队全面介入

个人认为，面对类似这几年新冠病毒疫情这类大范围传染病的防治，客观需要国家队全面介入，理由如下。

一、大范围传染病的防治一般需要大额的科研经费的投入，包括疫苗的研发、新药的研发等，这些都存在资金投入大且投入风险大等问题，这些对私人队都不是利好消息。

二、防治需要高素质科研队伍的加入，包括科研团队的组建以及科研行为的协调等问题，这些问题对私人队也不是利好消息。

三、私人队多追求利润最大化，这对疫情的防治不是利好消息。比如在疾病的检测及疫苗研制等方面，私人队可能存在较大造假作弊风险。因为这里面有利润驱动。

四、国家队出现造假作弊等行为的可能性不大。因为造假作弊不会给队长和队员带来利润，反而若出问题队长及队员必然要承担受惩罚的责任，所以，国家队一般不会出现造假作弊等一些投机行为的。

五、由于传染病有时限的限制，为了追求利润最大化，这更容易促使私人队造假作弊。一般传染病爆发流行大都是短期的，多则也就是几年左右或再多几年而已。对于这种时限限制，私人队肯定会预期到的，一旦过了时限，必然没有任何利润可赚。这种时限限制可能会诱致一些良心稀缺的私人队有可能在疫情爆发传播期间尽可能想办法实现利润最大化，为此，可能会采取一些造假作弊行为等，甚至为了利润最大化，私人队自己可能都去传播病毒。而国家队一般不会有这种行为。

六、国家队可能存在效率低下的问题。这可以通过改善激励机制来规避。比如，对于疫苗和新药研制人员，可采取高额奖金激励办法规避低效率风险。对于一般工作人员，可通过业绩考核和职务晋升激励等办法来规避低效率风险。

七、若国家队力量实在不足，确实需要私人队介入，国家必须要全面加强监管。要对私人队的所有工作流程的每一个环节都要尽可能实现有效监管。但这可能会导致监管成本巨大。同时，监管人员面临贿赂的可能性会变大，导致监管失效。

八、这几年的疫情防治，就是证明。比如造假作弊，甚至自己传播病毒等，私人队是问题频发，而国家队一般没有。也可以说正是国家力量的全面介入，才避免了很多问题，同时也大大提高了防治效果。

综合上述利弊分析，个人认为，面对类似这几年新冠病毒疫情大范围传染病的防治，包括疾病的检测、疫苗的研制等，包括中间所需要的一切工作，都应是国家队全面介入更好，私人队越少介入越好。但在一些不容易造假作弊，且便于监管同时监管成本低的环节，可以容许一些高质量的私人队介入。同时，不管是国家队，还是私人队，若出现造假作弊投机取巧等行为，都要严惩不贷。

好，谢谢，谢谢。

Song Guiwu's point 70 In the face of large-scale infectious diseases, the objective need for the full involvement of the national team

Personally, in the face of large-scale infectious diseases such as the COVID-19 outbreak in recent years, the objective need for the full involvement of the national team is as follows. First, the prevention and treatment of large-scale infectious diseases generally require a large amount of scientific research funds, including the research and development of vaccines and new drugs, which have the problems of large capital investment and large investment risk, which are not good news for private teams. Second, the prevention and treatment needs the participation of high-quality scientific research teams, including the establishment of scientific research teams and the coordination of scientific research activities, which are not good news for private teams. Third, private teams mostly pursue profit maximization, which is not good news for the prevention and treatment of the epidemic.For example, in the detection of diseases and the development of vaccines, private teams may have a greater risk of fraud and cheating.Because there is profit driven. Fourth, the possibility of fraud and cheating in the national team is not high.Because fraud and cheating will not bring profits to the captain and team members, but if there is a problem, the captain and team members will inevitably bear the responsibility of punishment, so the national team generally does not appear some speculative behaviors such as fraud and cheating. 5. Due to the time limit of infectious diseases, in order to maximize profits, it is easier for private teams to cheat.Generally, infectious disease outbreaks are mostly short-term, which is about a few years or a few more years.For this time limit, the private team will certainly expect that once the time limit is exceeded, there will be no profit to be made.This time limit may induce some private teams with a lack of conscience to try to maximize profits during the outbreak and spread of the epidemic. For this purpose, they may take some cheating behaviors, or even spread the virus themselves in order to maximize profits.The national team generally will not have such behaviors. 6. The national team may have the problem of low efficiency.This can be avoided by improving the incentive mechanism.For example, for vaccine and new drug researchers, high bonus incentives can be adopted to avoid the risk of low efficiency.For general staff, performance assessment and job promotion incentives can be adopted to avoid the risk of low efficiency. 7. If the national team is really insufficient and the intervention of private teams is really needed, the state must comprehensively strengthen supervision.Effective supervision should be implemented for every link of all the work processes of the private team as far as possible.But this may lead to huge supervision costs. At the same time, the possibility of bribery will increase, resulting in the failure of supervision. 8. The prevention and control of the epidemic in recent years is proof.For example, fraud and cheating, or even spreading the virus themselves, private teams have frequent problems, while the national team generally does not.It can also be said that it is the full involvement of the state that has avoided many problems and greatly improved the prevention and control effect. Based on the above analysis of pros and cons, I personally believe that in the face of a large-scale infectious disease like the COVID-19 epidemic in recent years, including disease detection, vaccine development, and all the work needed in the middle, it is better to have the full involvement of the national team, and the less involvement of the private team, the better.But in some links that are not easy to cheat and cheat, and are easy to supervise and have low supervision costs, some high-quality private teams can be allowed to intervene.At the same time, whether it is the national team or the private team, if there is cheating and opportunistic behavior, we will punish it severely.OK, thank you, thank you.