首先是给我老板的一个基本资料

Business Segmentation

 

Film Distribution  68% of total revenue

Film Investment   6%

Movie Theater       21%

Talent Agency       5%

 

Valuation

 

(In US$ millions)	TEV	LTM EBITDA	TEV/LTM EBITDA
Bona Film (Nasdaq:BONA)	165.4	29.9	5.5
Huayi Brothers (SHE:300027)	1300.8	32.1	40.5
Huace Film (SHE:300133)	506.5	17.7	28.6
Orange Sky (HKG:1132)	75.0	14.0	5.4

 

Revenue, EBITDA, Debt and Cash flow History

 

(In US$ millions)	2008	2009	2010	CAGR
Revenue	23.4	38.4	52.8	50.2%
EBITDA	12.9	19.4	29.9	52.4%
Total Debt	-	12.6	23.4
Net Operating CF	(2.2)	(24.3)	(32.4)
Net Investing CF	(4.9)	(0.6)	(8.4)
Net Financing CF	4.9	27.7	117.4

 

PE Investment History

 

2007: SIG China and Sequoia Funds invested total amount of $8,000,000, with $2.56 per Series A preferred share.

 

Each Series A preferred share is convertible to 1.84 ordinary shares (or 3.68 ADS).

 

2009: Matrix Partners, Sequoia Funds, and Sina Hong Kong invested $3,500,000, with $2.82 per Series B-1 preferred share.

          

Matrix Partners China Funds, the Sequoia Funds, SINA Hong Kong Limited, Zero2IPOChina Fund II L.P. and Wayford Enterprises Limited invested $6,000,000, with $3.62 per Series B-2 preferred share

 

2010: Matrix Partners China Funds, the Sequoia Funds, SIG China Investment One, Ltd., Zero2IPOChina Fund II L.P., Wayford Enterprises Limited and Blooming Capital Limited invested $5,000,000, with $6.3 per Series B-3 preferred share.

 

Each Series B preferred share is convertible to 1 ordinary share (or 2 ADS).

 

 

Ownership Structure

 

CEO--                                             36.7%

Sequoia Funds--                           10.3%

SIG China--                                   9.9%

Matrix Partners--                         7.7%

Other Pre-IPO Shareholders—  12.6%

Share Incentive Plan--                3.5%

Public Shareholders--                 19.3%

 

Owner Activities Since IPO

 

None so far

 

Risks

 

The company distributes 16-20 films each year. The failure of films will have impact on the operations

 

The DVD market has a small size in China. Thus the profits from distribution are mainly from theaters. 

 

个人看法如下：

成长投资很适合，价值投资不适合。

成长投资主要是几位分析师预计未来5年复合增长43%， 而forward P/E只有11倍，得到PEG也就是0.25。这个很符合成长投资的 高成长低估值的标准。

价值投资主要看了重置成本，比起enterprise value还是低一些 (150M VS 170M)。此外， ROIC去年的只有不到10%， 比起他的12-13%WACC还要低 这个希望今年能改善。还有就是经营性现金流一直是负的，这样属于公司一直在砸钱。

往好的方向说，最后一轮PE融资 是折合3块1毛多ADS的价格。但是谁知道未来的P/E倍数和利润增长能有多少。5年之后的事情谁说的准。而且发行这方面，欧美大片都还是中影的地盘，所以他的发行上未来会怎么样，我也不好说。他的影院业务，由于刚起步，他们也没有运营经验，短期不看好。