美国《产业周刊》报道：中国的伟大变迁

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美国《产业周刊》报道：中国的伟大变迁
——一个出口制造大国如今正大力发展内需市场

最新一期的美国《产业周刊》发表由主编史蒂夫٠明特采写的一篇题为“中国的伟大变迁”报道。我的合伙人、Z. H. STUDIO的颜之华女士也接受了该刊主编的专访。“中国的伟大变迁”文中提到，中国的十二五发展纲要昭示了几大趋势：转变经济增长模式、引导内需消费、并在这个地球上人口最多的国家普遍性地提升人们的生活水平。对于美国制造业者而言，中国即使在此巨大变迁中依然是一个具有吸引力的制造基地，只是她的吸引力的内核还将进一步得到升华。

“今天中国是世界工厂；明天她还将是。没有人能迅速改变这一事实，”专业从事供应链和运营管理的Riverwood Solutions咨询公司CEO罗恩٠凯思认为。不可否认的是，中国的工厂成本正变得昂贵起来。

根据凯思的统计，中国直接与间接的劳动力成本自2005年以来已经飙升了128%。伴随着人力成本上升的，还有中国政府有意识地发展一批重点产业，寻求更高的附加值，扶持绿色清洁的生产运营，等等。举例来说，像印刷电路板装配加工厂这样消耗大量化工材料和清洁用水的企业，“如今已经越来越难以获得生产许可执照了”。

尤其是当中国东部沿海地区的人力成本持续走高后，一些生产商开始陆续向内地搬迁。例如，生产苹果iPad和iPhone数量占全球第一的富士康集团就把大量生产基地从深圳迁往内地。据报道，（富士康）迁移生产基地所涉及的工作岗位达到20万个。生产基地内迁可以降低劳动力支出成本，当然同时也使运输成本上升，因为毕竟大量的中国出口商还是聚集在东部沿海港口城市，距离内陆至少有数百上千英里。

节约劳动力成本只是一个因素而已。总部位于北京的媒体与营销顾问机构“之华媒体”的合伙人颜之华介绍说，通过诸如“企业内创业”计划，瞄准内陆市场的企业可以迅速构建起全国性的产品销售与服务网络；例如，前文提到的富士康集团向工龄达5年或者以上的资深员工提供一项内部创业扶持基金，每人可获得高达2.5万美元的启动资金，以资助他们回到自己的家乡开设富士康专卖店。颜女士说，扩大内需消费市场、并配备强有力的供货渠道和物流体系，这些都是企业将生产基地向内陆迁移之际可以考虑的“一体化并举策略”。

诚然，中国内陆并非制造商搬迁的唯一目的地。Riverwood Solutions的凯思介绍道，亚洲一些新兴国家正大力发展其本身的制造业，有的也希望跻身于新一代的世界工厂。这其中就包括马来西亚、越南、菲律宾、印度尼西亚、泰国、新加坡等。

即便中国在制造外包方面失去一些成本竞争力，她本身的内需消费市场也极具体量和吸引力。一些分析报告已经显示，中国的中产阶层数量在今后几年之内将超过美国全国的人口数量。

Accenture咨询公司一位资深管理人员乔纳森٠莱特认为，尚在中国安营扎寨的西方企业如果说在过去几年尝到了外包生产“成本甜头”，那么接下来，他们应该认识到自己正处于如此接近一个巨大（内需）消费市场的先发者优势。不过，莱特也警告说，中国年轻一代、具有较强购买力的消费者是眼光敏锐的一族

“中国最具有购买力的消费群，总体上来说，比西方成熟市场的同类要年轻，”莱特说，“年轻也意味着他们更熟悉新技术、比成熟市场的同类消费者更具有差异化的消费偏好。他们不仅要求买到高质量的产品，而且在作购买决定之前，他们还会使用最潮流的社会化媒体来作功课，以搜寻出最优的购买方案。”
 
 
 
IndustryWeek: China's Great Transition
A manufacturing giant built on exports is promoting domestic consumption.

By Steve Minter
 
China's 12th five-year plan signals a shift toward slower growth, more domestic consumption and more concern with raising living standards broadly across the world's most populous nation. For U.S. manufacturers, these shifts mean China will remain an attractive manufacturing site, but the nature of the attraction will be evolving.
 
"China is the world's factory today. It will remain the world's factory tomorrow. Nobody is going to flip a switch," notes Ron Keith, CEO of Riverwood Solutions, a managed supply chain services and operations consulting firm. But China's factory is becoming more expensive to do business in. Keith notes that direct and indirect labor costs have increased 128% since 2005. Along with rising labor costs, the Chinese government is becoming more particular about the industries it wants to attract and promote, seeking higher value, cleaner operations. Keith points out that printed circuit board fabrication shops, for example, use a lot of chemicals and fresh water. He says the government is making it "increasingly difficult to get permits to do those types of things."

As labor costs rise along China's east coast, companies are moving some operations inland. For example, Foxconn, which produces most of Apple's iPads and iPhones at its huge factories in Shenzhen, is reported to be moving 200,000 production jobs inland. Moving inland may reduce labor costs, but it also raises shipping costs for exporters who move hundreds of miles from eastern ports.

But Foxconn is also launching an intrapreneurship program, according to Stephanie Yan, principal of Z. H. Studio, a media and marketing consultancy in Beijing that generates China business reports and studies. Foxconn is offering employees with 5 years or more tenure up to $25,000 if they start up a Foxconn-branded retail shop in their hometown. By developing an entrepreneurial network this way, Yan says, Foxconn is able to create product and service outlets around the country and build a strong logistics system for domestic consumption.

Manufacturers aren' t looking only at moving to inland China. Keith says companies are exploring a number of other Asian countries eager to build their own manufacturing sectors. Those countries include Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore.

But if China represents a more expensive outsourcing destination, it also offers an enormous and increasingly attractive market. Some analyses, for example, show that China' s middle class in a few years will exceed the total population of the United States.

Western companies that established operations in China years ago to source their products, says Jonathan Wright, a senior executive at Accenture Consulting, will find themselves in a strong position to address domestic demand there. But he warns that companies will find discerning consumers among China's younger, more affluent population.

The wealthiest population in China is younger than in the mature markets," Wright says. "With that youth comes tech savvy and very different buying behavior than in mature markets. They want to buy quality products and will use blogs, tweets and other research to make the best decisions they can."