MARKETING used to be the route to the chief executive's chair, but the world has changed. Now, says Monika Hamori, professor of human resources at Instituto de Empresa in Madrid, it is finance chiefs who are most likely to get the top job, though experience in operations—running parts of the company—is also essential. CFO Magazine (a sister publication of The Economist) found in 2005 that one-fifth of chief executives in America were former chief financial officers, almost double the share of a decade earlier. The importance of quarterly financial reporting, and closer scrutiny since the imposition of the Sarbanes-Oxley corporate-governance act, have put CFOs in the limelight—and given them the chance to shine.

做市场营销过去常常被认为是通往总裁的途径，但世界已经变了。位于马德里的西班牙皇家研究院的Monika Hamori教授说，现在是财务总监最有希望获得总裁的职位，当然运营经验——运作公司的某些部门——也是必不可少的。首席财务官杂志（经济学人杂志的姐妹刊）2005年一项调查中发现五分之一的总裁之前是首席财务官，这比十年前的比例上升了一倍。季度财务报表的重要性，薩班斯-奥克斯利公司治理法案强制执行后更加细致的监察，这些都使得首席财务官聚焦于镁光灯下——也给了他们表现的机会。

Another factor in reaching the top is whether you stay with the company you joined as a youngster. Ms Hamori's research (with Peter Cappelli of the Wharton School in Philadelphia) looked at companies in the S&P 500 and the FTSEurofirst 300. She finds that “lifers” get to the top in 22 years (in America) and 24 years in Europe. “Hoppers” who jump between four or more companies, by contrast, take at least 26 years on average to become chief executives. Insiders get promotions that reflect their potential, because their bosses have enough information to be reasonably confident about their ability. When executives switch from one company to another, however, they tend to move less far up the hierarchy, the researchers found.

另一个升为高管的因素是你是否在你年轻时就进入的公司一直呆到现在。Hamori女士的研究（与费城沃顿商学院的Peter Cappelli共同完成）是关注标准普尔500指数和泛欧绩优300指数中的公司。她发现“终身从事一种工作的人”在美国22年成为总裁，在欧洲24年成为总裁。与之对比的是：在四个或更多的公司之间的跳槽的“跳槽者”通常要平均26年才能成为总裁。公司内部的人获得提升反应了他的潜力，因为他的老板有足够的信息来理性地判断并相信他的能力。研究者发现：当一个管理者从一个公司跳槽到另一个公司，无论怎样，他进入领导层的机会少多了。

The time taken to reach the top is falling. The average time from first job to chief executive fell from 28 years in 1980 to 24 in 2001. Successful executives are spending less time than they used to in each intermediate job—an average of four years—and they fill five posts on the way up, down from six. One reason for this acceleration is that company hierarchies are flatter than they used to be. Another important shift is the advent of female chief executives. In 2001 women accounted for 11% of bosses at leading American companies, according to the Hamori/Cappelli survey; in the early 1980s there were none.

成为总裁的时间在减少。从第一个工作到成为总裁的时间从1980年的28年降到2001年的24年。成功的管理者在花费在每个中层职位上的时间比过去的管理者——平均四年——要少。他们在通往总裁的道路上从过去平均要做过6个职位降到现在的5个。升职加速的一个原因是公司的等级制度比以前更加平坦了。另一个重要的变化是女性总裁的出现。根据Hamori/Cappelli 的调查，2001年在美国的顶级公司的老板中女性占到11%，而在1980年代这个比例则为零。

Transatlantic differences

大西洋两岸的不同

America is usually regarded as the home of raw capitalism, with youthful managers hopping from firm to firm and pushing their way to the top. But the Hamori/Cappelli study and another by Booz & Company, a consultancy, show that Europe is a more dynamic and harsher environment than America or Japan for chief executives. For a start, European chief executives are younger, with an average age of 54, compared with over 56 in America. The Hamori/Cappelli study shows that 26% of American bosses were lifers, compared with only 18% in Europe.

美国通常被看作残酷资本主义的家园，它的年轻经理人不断地跳槽于各个公司之间，才能最终走向总裁的职位。但是Hamori/Cappelli和一家咨询公司Booz & Company的研究显示：对于总裁来说，欧洲有着比美国，日本有着更充满变化和更残酷的环境。首先，欧洲的总裁更年轻，他们平均年龄54岁，而美国则是高于56岁。Hamori/Cappelli研究显示26%的美国老板是终身职业者，而欧洲的仅为18%.

The Europeans also have a harder time once they get to the top. Booz & Company's annual survey of chief-executive succession shows that 17.6% of European bosses moved on last year, compared with 15% of Americans and 10% of Japanese. Chief executives, the survey found, last longer in America: the average tenure over the past decade was just over nine years. But in Europe the average tenure over the same period was less than seven years.

欧洲人一旦成为总裁将会有着更加艰辛的历程。Booz & Company的关于总裁更替的年度调查研究显示：17.6%的欧洲总裁在去年被更换，而美国是15%，日本则是10%。调查发现美国总裁的任期更长：在过去的十年美国总裁的平均任期为9年，但同时代欧洲总裁的任期却少于7年。

Moreover, a whopping 37% of changes at the top in Europe were more or less firings, according to Booz, compared with only 27% in America and 12% in Japan. Booz puts this down to the more recent tightening of corporate governance in Europe. Another Booz finding is common to both sides of the Atlantic: looking back over recent years, board disputes and power struggles lie behind a third of chief-executive firings. In short, shareholder activism is making its presence felt, putting pressure on bosses to perform.

再者，根据Booz的研究：欧洲多达37%的总裁将要被更换，而美国是27%，日本是12%。Booz将此归因于最近欧洲的公司治理收紧的缘故。Booz的另一个发现是大西洋两岸的共同点：回顾最近几年，董事会怀疑和权力斗争导致了三分之一的总裁离职。简而言之，股东的行动主义造成了他现在的感觉，从而给总裁压力去执行。

(May 29th 2008 From The Economist print edition)