又有一篇拙文（《“政策市”是股市最大的不稳定因素》）被英文时事评论网站UPI Asia.com翻译发表了。也保存在这里吧——
China's stock market rebound a tribute to National Day
By Sheng Dalin Guest Commentary Published: September 21, 2009
Zhengzhou, China — Chinese stock markets slumped in August, sending investor confidence sliding and causing panic selling. But late in the month market managers introduced speedy measures to bring back investors’ confidence, in what local media described as a “frontline first-aid policy,” to ensure a rising market for National Day. China will celebrate its 60th anniversary on Oct. 1.
For example, the People’s Bank of China shifted its monetary policy, withdrawing currency from circulation and sending signals that liquidity would remain moderate in the second half of the year; meanwhile the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved a great number of securities and mobilized nearly 100 billion yuan (US$14.6 billion) to the battlefront to stabilize the market ahead of National Day.
The China Banking Regulatory Commission also announced it would allow the establishment of consumer finance companies – financial institutions that make small loans to individuals – in order to stimulate individual consumption, build sound financial networks and boost economic growth.
Somehow, I do not feel thrilled to hear that all these official bodies are lending a hand to the stock market, bringing in huge amounts of capital to ensure a good performance for the national anniversary. Rather I feel worried about the country’s stock market.
Chinese banks lent an amazing 7,370 billion yuan (US$1.07 billion) in the first half of this year. It is a huge increase over last year; this cannot be described as “moderate liquidity.” Instead, the policy seems to be to allow extremely high liquidity. The huge amount of cash poured into the market is surely causing tremendous inflationary pressure as well as generating high numbers of non-performing loans for Chinese banks.
It may have been necessary to make some slight adjustments in monetary policy to generate cash flow, but now, for the sake of good stock market performance for National Day, a slightly tight fist has been opened wide.
Now that the securities regulatory authority has opened wide its gate, a single company has been able to get approval for two securities within one day, which never happened before. Although these measures could temporarily flood the stock market with capital, this kind of stimulation is unsustainable.
Certainly, heating up the stock market could improve investors’ confidence and attract more private funds. Then the market would no long need to rely on credit funds; perhaps this is the management’s “wishful thinking.” But could such government-orchestrated “good performance” truly restore investors’ confidence?
This reminds me of the so-called “good performance” prior to the 17th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party two years ago. At that time, all kinds of special policies were announced, and the stock market was full of optimism. But after hitting a historical high, stock prices dropped dramatically on the second day of the Congress.
This was understandable. The government’s purpose in strategically supporting the stock market was to pay tribute to the 17th National Congress; once the meeting opened, intervention in the following days was out of consideration. Chinese shareholders quickly got the picture; they didn’t wait till the close of the Congress. As soon as the beneficial policies expired, the investors all withdrew. A huge collapse then was inevitable.
Stabilization is a long-term concept; maintaining a stable market in the long term requires sustainable policies.
In addition, the stock market is supposed to follow market principles. Those who supervise it should follow market rules and maintain independence. Economic policies should not be based on political objectives, and market prices should not be manipulated as a political “gift.” Such political “tribute” could bring short-term prosperity, but it could also create long-term hidden troubles.
The reality is that China’s stock market is still not free of the odd phenomenon of being policy driven, and this is the biggest factor creating instability in the market.
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(Sheng Dalin is a well-known writer and media critic, based in Zhengzhou, Henan province, China. This article is translated and edited from the Chinese by UPI Asia.com; the original can be found at http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_53e839d20100ewb8.html ©Copyright Sheng Dalin.)
附网站地址：http://www.upiasia.com/Economics/2009/09/21/chinas_stock_market_rebound_a_tribute_to_national_day/5286/
附汉语原文：“政策市”是股市最大的不稳定因素
盛大林
近半个月来，我国的股市出现了恐慌性的暴跌，市场信心受到很大打击。从上周开始，管理层明显加快了维稳投资者信心的行动。央行停止了货币政策的微调，继续释放下半年适度宽松流动性的信号；证监会批量发行基金，火线调动的近千亿资金将在国庆60周年前入市维稳；银监会也宣布推出消费金融公司，刺激个人消费，建立完善的金融链条，拉动经济增长。媒体把这些举动称为“政策火线救市”、“酝酿国庆行情”。（据8月23日《华夏时报》）
央行、证监会、银监会一齐出手，各路资金已经或即将涌入股市，一波“国庆行情”简直呼之欲出了。但闻此消息，我不仅高兴不起来，反而增加了对股市的担忧。
今年上半年，我国的信贷投放量达到惊人的7.37万亿元，比去年全年的信贷投放量还多出一大截，这哪里还是什么“适度宽松”，完全可称之“极度宽松”了。倾泄而出的货币资金不仅会带来巨大的通货膨胀压力，而且可能给银行带来天量的不良资产。因此，对货币政策作些微调，让事实上的“极度宽松”回归到真正的“适度宽松”是完全必要的。然而，为了“国庆行情”，刚刚收紧一点的手又松开了。与此同时，基金的审批也是闸门大开，有一家公司一天就有两只基金被放行，这种情况是前所未有的。这些措施固然可以暂时给股市带来充沛的资金，但这种刺激是不可持续的，因为货币政策不可能一直“极度宽松”下去，基金审批也不可能一直“敞开大门”。那么，货币和基金不再宽松了，怎么办？
诚然，股市的回暖可以修复投资者的信心，从而吸引更多的民间资金入市，这样的话，股市就可以不再依赖信贷资金和基金——这可能正是决策层的“如意算盘”。可是，靠政策托起来的行情能恢复投资者的信心吗？这不禁让我想起了两年前的“十七大行情”。当时，各种利好政策不断出台，股市上一片乐观的气氛。10月16日，也就是十七大开幕的第二天，沪综指达到了6124的历史最高点。然后就可以掉头向下，乃至一泄千里。回想起来，这也是符合逻辑的，因为政策托市的目标只是向十七大“献礼”，至于大会之后就不在考虑之列了。明白了这个道理，股民们当然也不会等到大会闭幕之后。利好政策即将“到期”，股民纷纷抽身而退，大盘不崩溃才怪！
稳定是一个长期的概念，维护稳定应该着眼于长远，相关的政策都应该是可持续的；股市是一个纯粹的市场，监管股市应该遵循市场规律，相关的决策部门都应该保持一定的独立性。带着政治目标去制定经济政策，甚至把市场行情当成政治性的“礼物”，是很要不得的。“政治献礼”性的政策虽然可以带来一时的繁荣，却也可能留下长期的隐患——因为依靠短期政策人为托起来的行情是难以持续的，在“大起”之后随之而来的往往就是“大落”，而且推得越高摔得越重！
从制造“十七大行情”到酝酿“国庆行情”，说明我国的股市依然没有走出“政策市”的怪圈，而这恰恰是中国股市最大的不稳定因素。