总统先生，欢迎来到中国！

当您步下您的专机的旋梯的时候，上海正下着小雨，而且浦东机场一定还刮着不小的北风，望着远处漆黑的夜空，我想这也许非常恰当地预示了您的中国之行。是的，此行尽管是您当选美国第44任总统的第一次中国之行，但是这次访问注定了礼节性将远远超过实质性的成就。这并不是说美中国两国目前没有什么值得商量和作出决定的事情，恰恰相反，在这个经济萧条、世界面临众多困难和危机的当今，两国间有许多需要协商和讨论并作出决策的方面。不过无论是您本人还是中国当局当下并没有心情来面对这些短期和长期的挑战，因为你们关心的事情没有多少交集。

First of all, the Chinese government or the ruling party itself is under tremendous pressure domestically from several fronts. Among the issues, the still lingering unrest in China’a largest minority region, Xinjiang, the wide spread of official corruption, widening gap of income distribution, worsening environment and the general disgruntaled sentiment toward the ruling elite and the party itself, all put the Party in high alert.  The survival of the regime is and has been the party’s number one concern and even more so during this troubled time.  The Party, therefore, does not have on its radar screen something like RMB’s exchange rate, global warming, CO2 emission, etc.  They will, no doubt about it, talk about all these issues ’cause they like to show their dear honorable guest they do care about those big picture issues, but deep in their heart, nothing comes close to the matters affecting their viability.

Now here are the issues that most American people would like Mr. Obama discuss with his hosts:

人民币汇率问题

我想任何人断言中国没有操纵人民币汇率不是别有用心，就是使用了大量的致幻剂。

I think anybody claiming China is not manupulating its currency must have used a huge dose of  LSD. As a controlled currency, you would naiively believe the RMB’s value is dermined by the Forex market?  Of course, not. Now how would some responsible politicians told us the Chinese government (or the central bank for that matter) is not manipulate the exchange rate? RMB is not even fully convertible (even at the current account level), so who is to going to decide how much a US dollar can be exchanged into RMB? the market? what market?  it is the central bank (ironically named as People’s Bank of China) for Chris’ sake! The exchange rate of RMB is, of course, manipulated in line with the Party’s desire.  Simple. Period.

环境与CO2排放

As the world's largest CO2 emitter (almost 25% of the total), the central government will be very actively serving lip service about curtail the emission of CO2 (China is among top 2 emitters in the world).  But from practicality perspective, it is just impossible to have the entire society following the lead.  The Party is now busy at keeping itself in power and in order to achieve that, it requires all level of its organs to fully get in line. CO2 emission? what is that?  You can imagine how to push that idea down to the provincial level officials, which is basically impossible to create any meaningful actions.  I, however, do anticipate this is the only area that US and China will reach some kind of agreement.

人权和信息自由

Let’s not getting into that idea... Mr. President, I don’t think you want to touch that either, given particularly China now holds most of your T-Bill and essentially, it is China that financing your trip to China.  So better not offend your creditors (and your host).  Maybe you can touch a little bit about human rights, Internet censorship, etc. but again, that is just a gesture, nothing serious will come out of it.  As of this very moment, websites such as YouTube, Twitter, Facebook, etc. are still blocked by the Great Fire Wall and I anticipate it will be so forever (will, sort of, as long as the Party stays in power...)

伊朗和北韩的核问题

Just leave me alone! I don’t want to get involved. China does not have any leverage in Iran, except the veto power in the Security Commission and equally, China's influence over its defiant small brother is diminishing too, so really not because China does not want to help, but lack of clout is the true reason.

That's all, Mr. President, pretty darn reality indeed. But, well, welcome to China.

[PS后记］美国总统的专机已经在18日晚离开了北京，也结束了奥巴马的第一次中国之行。跟我预计的一样，这次访问没有任何成果，甚至礼节上的意义也没有完全实现，在澳巴马面前，中国的领导人们显得僵硬、不自然，离开了讲话稿就不会说话（就像我离开了PPT就不会作演讲一样），这我不怪他们，因为这是他们成长的环境使然，TG的领导人们如朱院长、耀邦书记是另类，常常被指责为喜欢乱说话。当然美方也是理解TG的传统的，这就是为什么第一夫人没能同来的原因。只要想像一个高大、健美、阳光的黑人妇女出现在中国领导人的夫人面前会给国民留下什么吧。

分析以下这次访问失败的原因还是奥巴马完完全全没有准备与中国将要深入讨论的内容。显然，美国国内的Issue还是压倒一切的大事，尤其是最近连续两个关键州的州长选举，民主党完败，加剧了党内的不安气氛，另外，医保法案、阿富汗的增兵问题、伊朗核问题等等都在总统的雷达屏上占据着优先的位置，所以中国的一系列问题只好退居二线了。

我期待着奥巴马在人任内的第二次访问。