《经济学家》:安倍首相,显露头角


[水平所限,翻译得不一定很妥,凑合着看吧 尴尬 ]

Abe blows Japans trumpet, cautiously
May 3rd 2007 | TOKYO
From The Economist print edition
安倍慎重地按响了日本的喇叭
(意译:安倍首相,显露头角)
2007年5月3日 发自日本东京
来自《经济学家》(英)印刷版

Shinzo Abe wants a more assertive foreign policy
but Japans energy dependence is forcing it to be more pragmatic.(AP)
安倍晋三希望(制订)一个更加强势的外交政策,
但是日本对外的能源依赖,迫使其必须要更注重现实。(美联社图)

SINCE becoming prime minister last September, Shinzo Abe has done plenty of travelling. Straight off, he made a fence-mending trip to China and South Korea, with whom Japans relations had deteriorated under his predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi. In January he visited Europe, chiefly to emphasise that Japan was a staunch democratic partner on NATOs eastern flank. This week, shortly after visiting Washington for talks with George Bush, he toured the Middle East, the fount of more than three-quarters of Japans oil.
自从去年9月成为日本首相以来,安倍晋三完成了很多国事访问。当选后,他立即去中国、韩国进行了“修复性外交”。这是日本的两个近邻国家,也是安倍前任小泉纯一郎在任期间,关系恶化的两个国家。今年1月,安倍出访欧洲,主要强调了“日本是北约版图在东部侧翼的忠实且坚定的伙伴”理念。本周,在仓促访问华盛顿和跟美国总统布什会谈后,安倍的脚步迈向中东——日本国内超过3/4的石油就来自那里。

Mr Abes men say his travels paint an emerging vision: while the alliance with America remains the cornerstone of Japans security policy, Mr Abe is also pushing once-passive Japan to pursue its own, more muscular course. For in Asia, says an official, Japan is playing “a huge great game” in which it must compete with a rising China and a newly confident Russia for resources, power and prestige.
安倍的出访路线勾勒出一幅现实图景:一方面,仍与美国结盟成为日本安全政策的基石;另一方面,安倍急切地将曾经被动应对的日本,转变得更加自主和强势。一位官员透露,比如说在亚洲,为了跟正在崛起的中国和清新自信的俄罗斯,在资源、能力和国际声望上展开竞争,日本正在实施一个“巨强战略”。

His first trip as prime minister to meet Mr Bush was overshadowed by Mr Abes comments, in March, questioning the Japanese armys wartime role in forcing women into military brothels. Howls of international protest forced him into a sort-of apology. He repeated it to Mr Bush, who “accepted” it—as if the president spoke for the victims. This choreographed pas de deux prevented the issue overwhelming all others.
5月,跟安倍近期发表的一些言论相比,他作为首相第一次出访美国跟布什会面(的重要价值和意义),反而被遮蔽了。比如说被媒体穷追不舍的二战时期日军慰安妇问题。愤怒的国际舆论力量迫使安倍进行“程序性道歉”。他对布什重申了歉意,后者“接受”了——好像布什总统是受害者一般。这种双人芭蕾舞式的舞步,至少预防了媒体铺天盖地、无法抵挡的进一步批评[意译:这出“双簧”演技虽然不怎么样,却收到“金蝉脱壳”之功效]。

Mr Bush warmly approves of Mr Abes fence-mending with neighbours who had been antagonised by Mr Koizumis provocative visits to Yasukuni, Tokyos war shrine. America needs Chinese co-operation, even leadership, in dealing with a North Korea that went nuclear last October. And in the longer run, it wants to tie China in as a “responsible stakeholder” of the international system. Neither goal is served if Japan riles its neighbours with high-handedness over its wartime past.
小泉纯一郎之前不顾一切参拜靖国神社,让日本跟邻国关系降至冰点,因此布什非常赞赏安倍对邻国采取“修复性外交”政策。美国需要跟中国加强合作,尤其是为了解决朝鲜去年10月份以来的核试爆问题,他们要跟中国领导层合作。从更长远来看,美国也希望跟中国在国际体系中,形成“负责任利益相关者”关系。如果日本粗暴蛮横地惹恼它的邻居,美国就会连一个目标也实现不了。

Mr Abe was welcomed, too, for insisting that Japan should play an ever more energetic role in the alliance. After he left Washington last weekend, Japans foreign minister, Taro Aso, and the defence minister, Fumio Kyuma, sat down with their American counterparts, Condoleezza Rice and Robert Gates. With North Koreas missiles in mind, the Americans emphasised their countrys commitment to defend Japan against conventional and nuclear threats—in effect reaffirming that Japan is protected by Americas nuclear umbrella.
安倍受欢迎的原因当然不止以上的,因为他还强调日本要在日美同盟中承担更积极角色。当他上周离开华盛顿,日本外相麻生太郎和日本防卫大臣久间章生,与美国国务卿赖斯、国防部长罗伯特-盖茨坐到了一起(座谈)。考虑到朝鲜核问题,美方强调他们一定遵守承诺,保证对日本提供可能遭受常规武器和核武器打击的保护——有效地肯定了日本将受美国核保护伞的保护。

America also promised to bring forward the deployment by Japan of two American-made anti-ballistic missile systems. And with a view as much towards Chinas military rise as the North Korean threat, America even hinted it might sell Japan the advanced F-22 Raptor stealth fighter (though it later backtracked).
美国同时承诺由日本部署两套美制反弹道导弹系统。考虑到中国军事实力不断提升、朝鲜可能进行的打击,美方甚至暗示,它会向日本出售先进的F-22隐形战机(尽管稍后改口了)。

Japan is keen to play a greater part in its own defence, including through increased military co-operation. However, this has been hampered by the Japanese governments interpretation of the constitution. In particular, collective self-defence has been ruled out of bounds. As things stand, for instance, Japan may not shoot down a North Korean missile headed for the United States, or come to the aid of an American ship under attack. However, before his American visit Mr Abes government announced a review of the interpretation.
一直以来,日本都热心通过增进军事合作等方式,扩大其防务自主能力,却为日本内阁所颁布的《日本宪法》限制,特别是受到集体自卫权的束缚。因此,日本不得击落朝鲜发往美国的导弹;日方也不能对受袭的美军舰艇支援和救援。然而,安相出访美国前,日本内阁便“适时”地对《日本宪法》进行了诠释。

A right to collective self-defence underpins Mr Abes broader ambition, which is to ensure that Japan can play a bigger role in international security. As an example of the constraints, Japans 600 ground troops deployed in Iraq until last year were unable to use force. On May 3rd, the Japanese constitutions 60th anniversary, Mr Abe proposed rewriting it—including perhaps the clause declaring Japan pacifist.
加强集体自卫权是安倍的野心所在,确保了日本在国际安全事务中发挥更大作用。日本此前所受的种种束缚,可由下面的例子看出:部署于伊拉克的600人日本地面部队,直至去年才获得动武权。5月3日,是日本立宪60周年纪念日,安倍提议修宪——甚至可能涉及了日本是和平国家等条款。

Japans great game is dressed up in the values of humanitarianism, democracy and the rule of law. It seeks closer ties with democratic India and recently formalised a security alliance of sorts, only Japans second, with Australia. Mr Aso speaks of an “arc of freedom and prosperity” from Japan, swinging through India via moderate Middle Eastern states into Europe. China and Russia, unsurprisingly, see this as a bid to contain them.
日本的“巨强战略”,披上了“人道、民主及法治价值”的外衣。日本寻求与印度加强联系,并在日美同盟之外单独跟澳大利亚结盟。日本外相麻生太郎称“自由与繁荣之弧”——即从日本开始,辗转印度,经过局势缓和的中东,再进入欧州版图。这样一来,日本令中俄如芒刺背也就不足为奇了。

However, Mr Abes trip to the Gulf this week illustrated how pragmatism is lurking behind the fa?ade of Japans talk of spreading democracy. While China is signing energy deals around the world, cosying up to even the nastiest regimes, Japans attempts to secure its long-term oil supplies have gone awry. Last autumn the Iranians forced it to cut sharply its stake in the Azadegan oilfield in Iran, in which it had invested much time and money. Shortly after, Japanese stakes in the huge Sakhalin-2 gas project were slashed when the Russian state muscled in. Japanese concessions in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have also been lost.
但是,安倍本周出访海湾,又显示出他虽然满口虚幻的“民主”,做事却又非常务实。生于忧患死于安逸,当中国能源紧缺、四处出击(与海外能源机构签约)时,日本的长期原油供应何尝不是岌岌可危?去年秋天,伊朗强迫日本减少其在伊耗费巨万巨资的Azadegan油田股份,不久后,日本在大型的Sakhalin-2天然气工程中,股份又因俄罗斯强力介入而大量削减,至于日本在沙特阿拉伯、科威特等处的能源供给,也处处告急。

So this week Mr Abe sought to restore his countrys supply lines. A deal was announced that gives Saudi Arabia oil-storage facilities on Japans southern island of Okinawa in return for preferential Japanese access to them in emergencies. The Japan Bank for International Co-operation announced a $1 billion loan to Abu Dhabi as a downpayment on long-term oil contracts. Mr Abe did not upset his hosts with any unwelcome talk about democracy but he did propose a more active, “multi-layered” relationship with the region, for example offering Japan as an honest broker in the Arab-Israeli conflict. His mixture of idealism and pragmatism, added to a more confident style at home, seems to be doing him some good. For the first time since he came to office, the Nikkei daily reports, the prime ministers hitherto dismal approval ratings have risen.
因此,安倍本周出访中东,立足点是为了重建稳妥的油气供应线路。日本先与沙特阿拉伯订约,出让南部冲绳岛给沙特阿拉伯储油,以此作为应及时刻“优先供油日本”的条件;日本国际合作银行还贷款10亿美金给阿拉伯酋长国,作为长期供油合同的定金。想当初,安倍出访前言必称“民主、自由”,但在出访过程中却鲜有提及,反而倡导“积极、多层次双边关系”,甚至自荐当阿以争端的调解人。安倍在外交上,理想主义与现实主义完美结合;在国内事务上,则以自信服人,看来是左右逢源、顺风顺水。
日本《产经新闻》报道,安倍首相上任以来,民众信任率和支持率一直在低谷徘徊,没想到今天才真人露相、显露头角。
(完)