以下为简述,详细内容参见本网站英文版--作者 Summary * Economic reform priorities include: macroeconomic stability, income growth for 800 million rural inhabitants, regeneration of north-east and central industrial bases, better allocation of capital through bank reform, environmental protection, and creation of 10 million new jobs a year. * The key current issue is whether the government can moderate rapid GDP growth (fuelled by high fixed investment growth) whilst avoiding a hard landing for the economy. Investment declined from 53% y/y in Jan-Feb to 27% in 1H suggesting a significant response to targeted government measures. A soft landing is still the broad consensus outcome, but there remains nervousness about the sharp rate of slowdown: investment and credit data will be important to watch. *Overall moderate slowdown in China’s GDP growth from 9.8% y/y in Q1 to 9.6% y/y in Q2 (9.7% y/y for H1 2004 as a whole) likely to continue in 2H. * Long-term goal is to quadruple GDP between 2000 & 2020 (an implied annual growth rate of 7.2%).