宋圭武观点163减少农民必须要考虑农民的再就业问题

一些学者提出解决农民问题关键在减少农民，这里有一个前提条件，就是减少农民，必须要考虑农民的再就业问题。若农村的农民减少了，但农民在城市又就不了业，必然会导致产生大量城市贫困人口。而城市贫困人口比农村贫困人口对社会稳定危害更大，因为城市贫困人口没有土地保障。若城市产生大量连吃饭都成问题的贫困人口，国家政权安全将成大问题。而城市要吸纳就业人口，必须要有产业发展，而产业发展，必须产业的产品要有销路。而产业的产品销路，一是在国外，二是在国内。当国外的销路有问题时，产品就需要更多在国内销售，即主要靠内循环。而城乡循环是最主要的内循环。但问题是，当农村人口大量减少时，就很难有顺畅的内循环。发达国家由于有国外的广大市场，有外循环支撑，所以，可以大量减少农民。但对于发展中人口大国，由于产品国际竞争力总体比较弱，则产品销售需要以内循环为主。而实现内循环，必须要有广大的农村市场，这需要一是农村要有一定数量的人口，二是农村也不能大面积贫困。所以，发展中人口大国，必须要保持一定数量的农民，过度城市化对发展中人口大国是十分危险的。另外，考虑到技术进步对就业的排挤作用，城市即使有产业扩张，也未必就有就业增加，这对减少农民也是限制。总之，发展中人口大国发展是一个长期过程，尤其农民问题将是一个长期问题，不能急躁，要稳中求进。在发展过程中，农村发展关键是要守住粮食安全和防止农村产生大规模绝对贫困人口的底线，这是最基本的要求。在守住两个底线的基础上，防止城乡差距过大，实现城乡适度二元，在此基础上，再着眼长期发展。总之，发展中人口大国减少农民一定要适度推进。好，谢谢，谢谢。

Song Guiwu's Viewpoint 163 Reducing Farmers Must Consider the Re-employment Issue of Farmers

Some scholars have proposed that the key to solving the problem of farmers is to reduce farmers. Here is a prerequisite: to reduce farmers, we must consider the re-employment issue of farmers. If the number of farmers in rural areas is reduced, but they cannot find jobs in cities, it will inevitably lead to a large number of urban poor. And the urban poor are more harmful to social stability than the rural poor, because the urban poor have no land security. If cities have a large number of poor people who cannot even eat, the security of the state will become a big problem. To absorb the employed population, cities must have industrial development, and to develop the industry, the products of the industry must have a market. The product market of the industry is abroad and domestic. When there are problems in the foreign market, the products need to be sold more at home, that is, mainly by the internal circulation. And the urban-rural circulation is the most important internal circulation. But the problem is that when the rural population is reduced in large numbers, it is difficult to have a smooth internal circulation. Developed countries can reduce farmers in large numbers because of the large foreign market and the support of the external circulation. But for developing countries with large populations, because the international competitiveness of their products is generally weak, the sales of their products need to be mainly within the internal circulation. And to achieve the internal circulation, there must be a large rural market, which requires that the rural population has a certain number of people, and the rural poverty can not be large. Therefore, the developing countries with large populations must maintain a certain number of farmers, and excessive urbanization is very dangerous for the developing countries with large populations. In addition, considering the squeezing effect of technological progress on employment, even if there is industrial expansion in cities, there may not be an increase in employment, which is also a limitation to reduce farmers. In short, the development of the developing countries with large populations is a long process, especially the farmers' problem will be a long-term problem, and we can not be impatient, but should seek progress while maintaining stability. In the process of development, the key to rural development is to keep the bottom line of food security and prevent large-scale absolute poverty in rural areas, which is the most basic requirement. On the basis of keeping the two bottom lines, we should prevent the gap between urban and rural areas from being too large, and realize the moderate dualization of urban and rural areas, and on this basis, we should focus on long-term development. In short, the reduction of farmers in developing countries with large populations must be promoted moderately. OK, thank you, thank you.