宋圭武观点102：凯恩斯经济学不是解决中国经济问题的良药

凯恩斯经济学不是解决中国经济问题的良药。解决中国经济问题需要大经济学。凯恩斯经济学本质是短期经济学，而短期经济学本质是毒品，只能带来短期愉悦，且上瘾后，还需要不断的刺激，最终会让问题越来越糟。

要刺激消费需求，必须要有收入基础，没有收入基础，刺激消费只能越刺激，越没有消费。

要刺激投资需求，必须要考虑：一是投资要有利于提高产业竞争力；二是投资要有利于更多增加低收入群体收入。这样的投资才有真效果。否则，所谓的投资，就是产能过剩，就是增加腐败，并进一步加剧贫富分化问题。

而要增加出口需求，需要科技真正领先，产品才能有竞争力，出口才能有保障。而以自然资源为基础的出口，是不持久的。

目前，如何解决中国经济问题，需要立足大经济学。什么是大经济学，本人在前面的视频里已经讲过，这里不再重复。

具体而言，目前，如何解决中国经济诸多问题，第一，要立足长远考虑，不能急躁，不能浪漫，宁静才能致远，现代化也是一个慢活。第二，要建设有敬畏意识的文化。天不怕、地不怕的民族是无可救药的。第三，要大力促进社会的公平建设，尤其要着力缩小贫富差距。第四，要大力发展老年产业。包括养老旅游产业等，应大力发展。针对老年人增多且需求长期稳定情况，也可考虑多发展一些公有制家政服务产业，吸收大学生就业。第五，在农村多建设一些集体农场或国营农场，把农民招为职业工人，给农民一个能确保脱贫水平的铁饭碗工资，比如，一个月给1500到2000元，同时，乡村乡镇和村干部，要逐步转入集体农场或国营农场从事生产活动，变非生产人口为生产人口，减轻国家财政供养压力。同时，部分大学生也可以进入集体农场或国营农场就业。第六，对科研全面加大投入。第七，把减轻地方债务列为干部考核指标之一。第八，分散化解房地产问题。一部分房地产可转化为旅游养老园模式；一部分房地产可开启低价销售模式；一部分房地产可考虑通过国家收购，变为低收入群体廉租房；一部分房地产可变为短期租住模式；剩余的部分自生自灭。在房地产问题上，不能让短期愉悦替代长久痛苦。第九，全民需要有一个过五年紧日子的心理准备，尤其党政系统，更要有过紧日子的准备。房地产市场萧条，国民经济恢复至少需要五年调整期。第十，国家增发的货币，要重点补贴低收入群体。对特别困难家庭，可免费每月发放一定数额的购物券，主要用于购买食品等基本生活品。第十一，对高工资全面限制。对年收入40万以上的个人，实行90%的累进税率。第十二，持久全面反腐败，严厉打击腐败行为。对主动全部上交贪污腐败财产的，可免于责任追究，对部分上交的，可部分减免责任追究。第十三，绿水青山就是金山银山，要切实保护好生态环境，这是未来经济持续发展的基础。

好，谢谢，谢谢。

Song Guiwu's opinion 102:Keynes economics is not the right medicine to solve China's economic problems

Keynes economics is not the right medicine to solve China's economic problems.To solve China's economic problems, we need macroeconomics.Keynes economics is short-term economics in essence, while short-term economics is essentially a drug that can only bring short-term pleasure. After addiction, it needs constant stimulation, which will eventually make the problem worse and worse.To stimulate consumer demand, there must be an income basis. Without an income basis, the more stimulus the consumption is, the less consumption there is.To stimulate investment demand, we must consider: first, investment should be conducive to improving industrial competitiveness;second, investment should be conducive to more income increase of low-income groups.Such investment has real effect.Otherwise, the so-called investment is overcapacity, increasing corruption and further exacerbating the problem of wealth gap.To increase export demand, we need really advanced technology, so that products can be competitive and exports can be guaranteed.Exports based on natural resources are not sustainable.At present, how to solve China's economic problems, we need to base on macroeconomics.What is macroeconomics, I have already talked about in the previous video, so I won't repeat here. Specifically, at present, how to solve China's economic problems, the first, to take a long-term perspective, not impatient, not romantic, quiet to go far, modernization is also a slow. Second, to build a culture of awe consciousness. The nation is hopeless if it is not afraid of heaven and earth. Third, to vigorously promote the construction of social equity, especially to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor. Fourth, to vigorously develop the elderly industry. Including the pension tourism industry, should be vigorously developed. In view of the increasing number of elderly people and the long-term stability of demand, it is also possible to consider developing more public-owned housekeeping service industries to absorb college students. Fifth, in rural areas to build more collective farms or state-run farms, the farmers as professional workers, to give farmers a can ensure the level of poverty iron rice bowl wage, for example, a month to 1500 to 2000 yuan, at the same time, rural towns and villages and village cadres, to gradually transfer to collective farms or state-run farms engaged in production activities, change non-productive population for the production population, reduce the pressure of the state financial support. At the same time, some college students can also enter the collective farm or state-run farm employment. Sixth, to increase investment in scientific research. Seventh, to reduce local debt as one of the cadre assessment index. Eighth, disperse the real estate problem. A part of the real estate can be converted into tourism pension park mode; Some real estate can be sold at a low price;some can be purchased by the state and turned into low-income housing;some can be rented out for short periods;the rest will have to fend for themselves.We cannot let short-term pleasure replace long-term pain in the real estate market. Ninth, the whole nation should be prepared to live a tight life for five years, especially the Party and government system.The real estate market is sluggish, and it will take at least five years to adjust the national economy.Tenth, the additional currency printed by the state should focus on subsidizing the low-income groups.For families with special difficulties, a certain amount of shopping vouchers can be issued free of charge every month, mainly for the purchase of food and other basic necessities.Eleventh, there will be a comprehensive restriction on high wages.For individuals with an annual income of more than 400,000 yuan, a progressive tax rate of 90% will be implemented.Twelfth, we will have a comprehensive and sustained anti-corruption campaign, and crack down on corruption.For those who voluntarily turn over all their embezzled and corrupt assets, they can be exempted from accountability. For those who turn over part of their assets, they can be partially exempted from accountability.Thirteen, clear water and green mountains are worth gold and silver mountains. We should effectively protect the ecological environment, which is the basis for sustainable economic development in the future.OK, thank you, thank you.