中国过去34年GDP年均增速9.8%。按习近平的说法，叫做‘成绩无与伦比’。

　　但是，习近平还说，‘雾霾吸引眼球，PM2.5引起热议’，中国多年发展出现的问题也‘高度集中’。

　　我提出下面两个假设和问题，请大家给出答案。

　　1. 假设过去每年GDP增长少两个百分点，但是不出现目前的雾霾、高浓度的PM2.5、没有城市交通的拥堵，没有出现现在的奇高房价和物价。你喜欢现在的情况？还是喜欢我的假设情况？

　　2. 假设每年GDP增长少两个百分点，中国没有那么多贪官和亿万级富豪，而最穷的人比现在的情况好很多，也就是说，不用为住房、教育和医疗的压力而过着贫困的生活。你是要现在的情况？还是我假设的情况？

　　上面两个假设和问题，无非就是想告诉大家：高增长不是目的，人民的幸福，社会的公平公义，才是目的。如果牺牲2到3个百分点的增长率，社会更加公平公义，官员和商人没有那么贪婪，污染得到控制，那么，我相信大家，会毫无疑问的选择低一点的速度。

　　改变过去不可能，可是，改变未来是可以的。最怕的是，过去的盲目高速度，被不断推崇，永无止境的为增长而增长，不顾环境破坏和社会不公。等到有一天，想改都来不及，那就真的是后悔莫及了。

　　现在，中国进入发展的十字路口。是时候放慢一点速度，把主要的注意力用于保护环境、提高社会公平和公义的时候了。只有这样，中国才有可能进入可持续的发展轨道。所以，人们不应该过多的把目前经济比较慢的增长，当成是中国衰弱的标志。相反，中国应该利用这个转折机会，进行经济结构调整，提升技术水平和提高经济增长的质量。

　　下面是我在英国《金融时报》写的英文文章，后来被翻译成中文。我把中英文两个版本复制如下，供大家阅读和指正。

　　附件1：中国经济放缓是好事 (2014-01-03 09:40:49)

　　作者：英国诺丁汉大学当代中国学学院院长 姚树洁 为英国《金融时报》撰稿

　　原文发表于：FT中文网

　　中国经济放缓是好事

　　2013年，中共的思想观念发生了重大转变。中国政府屡次承诺要走上一条更可持续的发展道路，如今终于付诸行动。新领导层放弃了往届领导人所追求的高速而危险的经济增长模式，并着手解决环境严重退化、地区发展不平衡以及社会不公等问题所造成的后果。

　　2013年中国经济增速据估测在7.5%左右，为10多年来最慢，2014年增速将与2013年大致相当。很多投资者已经习惯了中国经济的两位数增长——在全球最严重的金融危机之一爆发期间，中国经济照常高速增长——他们将增速放缓视为一种弱点。

　　然而，中国经济放缓非但不值得担心，反而有理由让人感到乐观。经济飞速增长危及中国长期稳定，而且也不可能永远持续下去。另外，在巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非“金砖四国”(Brics)中，7.5%增速仍是目前最高的。今年第三季度，巴西和俄罗斯的经济增速实际上已为负值，而印度和南非经济增长放慢的速度远远快于中国，不过美国、英国和其他几个工业化国家的经济却出现了转机。

　　在中共十八届三中全会召开之后，中国新经济政策的方向变得更为明朗，而且有很多积极因素。标题朴实的《中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定》做出了一项承诺：将放松政府对市场力量的控制。中国政府颁布的法令文件在措辞上总是具有启发意义。《决定》将自由市场所起的作用由“基础性作用”更改 为“决定性作用”，此前所有官方政策文件都使用“基础性作用”这个词。

　　中共中央委员会在12月初召开的最新会议，出炉了2014年主要经济任务，包括提高政府透明度；促进区域协调发展，不再偏向于发展繁荣的东部城市；防范非银行金融机构发放给地方政府的过量“影子”贷款酿成债务危机。

　　中国领导人承诺加速城市化进程，他们认为这一进程是中国经济转型——从由低成本制造业支撑的出口拉动转变为日益由国内消费驱动——的基础。

　　中国政府要推进城市化战略，有必要采取措施让数百万从农村涌入城市工作的农民工获得“城市居民地位”。此外还需要为城市发展建立一套稳定的金融体系，提高城市规划水平，着重发展二三线城市，而不是让北京、上海和广州等城市承受更多压力，在近年人口增长的压力下，这些大城市已不堪重负。

　　关于让经济走上更适度增长的轨道，中国政府正在发出正确的声音。这对外国企业和外来投资意味着什么？

　　传统重污染行业正面临严格限制，而高科技行业继续享受有利的税收优惠。进口商品和服务以及外国资本流入将被引导向预先确定的增长领域，包括高科技制造业、清洁技术、制药、金融服务、医疗设备、水供应和水处理技术、高等教育以及各行各业的研发。

　　随着政府作用减弱，市场力量增强，私营部门将受益于优惠政策。私营企业（包括外资企业）将能够在目前由国有企业主导的领域展开更公平竞争，特别是资源开采领域和银行业。中国政府将在基础设施开发、医疗和教育等领域鼓励发展公私合营企业。

　　这些新措施将为外资企业带来更多机遇，它们需要快速适应新的商业环境。外国资本将被引入中国以前缺乏国际竞争力的领域，以及中国能够改善其环保声誉和减少地区失衡的领域。因此，外资企业可能会在中国中小城市以及农业和农村产业取得最大回报。

　　中国现在是全球最大海外投资者之一，其投资海外的渴望与其吸纳外国技术和外国资本的执着不相上下。英国政府明智、毫不隐晦地显示出其利用这一资源的意愿，英国财相乔治?奥斯本(George Osborne)和伦敦市长鲍里斯?约翰逊(Boris Johnson)在去年10月份访华，英国首相戴维?卡梅伦(David Cameron)接着在去年12月份率领英国政商两界的一个131人代表团访华。

　　卡梅伦和奥斯本都表现出了与中国企业家合作的热情。奥斯本到访北京后，又远赴深圳，与中国最大民营科技公司华为的董事长任正非共进午餐，华为计划未来5年在英国投入130亿英镑巨资。卡梅伦到上海与中国吉利汽车(Geely Auto Corporation)董事长李书福会面，该公司收购了总部位于考文垂的黑色出租车制造商——伦敦出租车公司(London Taxi Company)，以及瑞典汽车制造商沃尔沃(Volvo)。

　　中国政府和人民对英国的务实态度表示欢迎。双边贸易、商业合作以及投资将令双方受益，并促进两国对彼此社会与人文价值观的理解和尊重。

　　随着中国经济继续追赶美国，中国迫切希望树立一个负责任的、正在崛起的强国的形象。中国经济增速放缓将向外界展现出一个更为稳定、更可持续的商业环境，那些具备能力和意愿去适应中国雄心勃勃想要实现的新经济格局的外资企业将从中获得回报。

　　注：本文作者系英国诺丁汉大学(Nottingham)当代中国学学院(School of Contemporary Chinese Studies)院长、经济学及中国可持续发展教授。

　　译者/梁艳裳

　　附件2：Hello 2014: China’s slower growth is cause for optimism

　　Financial Times, Dec 23, 2013 12:04pm by guest writer  

　　The second in our series of guest posts on the outlook for 2014 is by Shujie Yao of Nottingham University

　　This year marked a significant shift in the mindset of China’s Communist Party. Oft-repeated promises to carve out a more sustainable development path finally translated into action as China’s new leadership abandoned breakneck growth pursued by its predecessors and moved to address the consequences of severe environmental degradation, unbalanced regional growth and social injustice.

　　The economy is predicted to have grown 7.5 per cent in 2013, the lowest rate of increase for more than a decade, and it promises to be much of the same in 2014. Many investors spoilt by double-digit Chinese growth that became commonplace even during one of the world’s most serious financial crises see the dip in growth as a weakness.

　　But rather than being a cause for alarm, it signals reasons for optimism. Tearaway growth threatened the country’s long-term stability and it simply could not continue forever. Besides, a 7.5 per cent growth rate is still by far the highest of the Brics economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Growth in Brazil and Russia actually entered negative territory in the third quarter of this year, while growth in India and South Africa tapered far more speedily than in China, despite the revival in fortunes of the US, the UK and several other industrialised economies.

　　The direction of China’s new economic policies became clearer following the Third Plenum of the Communist Party’s 18th National Congress and there are many positives. The awkwardly named Resolution for Deepening Reforms in an All-round Way set in stone a commitment to loosening the governmental grip on market forces. Semantics in Chinese government edicts are always revealing. The resolution redefined the role of the free market as “determinant” as opposed to “basic”, a term used in all previous official policy documents.

　　The latest meeting of the Communist Party Central Committee, held in early December, resulted in the publication of its economic priorities in 2014. These included greater government transparency, a more balanced approach to regional development, rather than channelling growth into the prosperous eastern cities, and measures to prevent a debt crisis resulting from excessive ‘shadow’ lending by local authorities from non-bank financial institutions.

　　China’s leaders have pledged to speed up urbanisation, a process they regard as fundamental to upgrading its economy to one increasingly powered by domestic consumption instead of exports underpinned by low-cost manufacturing.

　　Its urbanisation strategy calls for measures to give ‘urban resident status’ to millions of migrant workers that have flocked to the cities from the countryside to work. And it calls for a stable financing system for urban development, better city planning and an emphasis on expanding the country’s second and third-tier cities rather than placing additional burdens on the likes of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, which are already creaking under the weight of recent population growth.

　　The Chinese government is certainly making all the right noises about a more measured growth trajectory. But what does this all mean for foreign business and investment?

　　Traditional, high-polluting industries are facing severe restrictions just as the hi-tech sector continues to receive favourable tax breaks. Imported goods and services, as well as foreign capital inflows, will be guided towards pre-defined growth areas of hi-tech manufacturing, clean technology, pharmaceuticals, financial services, healthcare equipment, water-supply and waste-treatment technology, higher education and research & development across the board.

　　With power shifting from government to the markets, the private sector will benefit from preferential policies. Private companies, including foreign-invested enterprises, will be able to compete on a more level playing field in areas currently dominated by state-owned enterprises, especially resource extraction and banking. The government will encourage private and public sector joint ventures in the fields of infrastructure development, healthcare and education.

　　These new initiatives will open up more opportunities for foreign companies, which will need to adapt to the new business environment swiftly. Foreign capital will be channelled into areas where China has previously lacked international competitiveness and where China can improve its green credentials and reduce regional imbalances. Thus foreign companies are likely to reap the greatest rewards in China’s small and medium-sized cities, as well as in its agricultural and rural industries.

　　China is now one of the world’s largest overseas investors and its eagerness to spend abroad matches its obsessive assimilation of foreign technologies and capital. Wisely, the UK government has made no secret about its desire to tap into this resource, with George Osborne and Boris Johnson visiting China in October, and David Cameron leading a delegation of 131 British politicians and businesspeople in December.

　　Both Cameron and Osborne demonstrated their enthusiasm in linking up with influential Chinese entrepreneurs. Osborne made the long trip from Beijing to Shenzhen to have lunch with Ren Zhengfei, chairman of China’s largest private hi-tech company, which plans to pour ?13bn in investment into the UK over the next five years. Cameron travelled to Shanghai to meet Li Shufu, chairman of Geely Auto Corporation, which has bought the Coventry-based London Taxi Company (LTC), the maker of London’s black cabs, and the Swedish carmaker Volvo.

　　The Chinese government and people have welcomed Britain’s pragmatism. Bilateral trade, business engagement and investment will benefit both countries and enhance mutual understanding and appreciation of each other’s social and human values.

　　As the Chinese economy continues to make ground on the US, it desperately wishes to be perceived as a responsible rising power. The slowdown in its growth presents to the outside world a steadier and more sustainable business environment that will reward those foreign companies with the skill and willingness to adapt to China’s ambitious new economic landscape.

　　Shujie Yao is Professor of Economics and Chinese Sustainable Development and head of the School of Contemporary Chinese Studies at the University of Nottingham.