伯南克拿影子银行说事

       最近几年来，伯南克多次提到影子银行（shadow bank，shadow banking，shadow banking system）这个概念，他的核心观点在于，影子银行的出现使得货币政策更加难以实施，影子银行的使得金融危机更加难以预测、监管和控制。
      影子银行概念最早是2007年由美国人提出，指那些有银行之实但却无银行之名的种类繁杂的非银行机构。目前国内外都比较认同的界定是，“影子银行”又称“平行银行系统（parallel banking system）”或“准银行体系”，它与商业银行的业务平行，除了吸收存款外，“影子银行”经营几乎所有的银行业务。
     Perry Mehrling教授对影子银行作了如下描述：The shadow banking system was built up alongside the traditional banking system, using some of these tools of modern finance we were just talking about like interest rate swaps and credit default swaps. The idea was to make credit cheaper for the ultimate borrower and more available, but also to separate the credit system from the payment system. A lot of the regulation we have on the traditional banking system is there to protect the payment system, to make sure that when you write a check on your deposit account, that money actually gets transferred.
    The idea of the shadow banking system was in some way, not only tolerated by regulators, but encouraged by regulators. They thought, "Let's get some of these risks off the balance sheet of the traditional banking system. Let's get interest rate risk off the balance sheet of the traditional banking system. Let's get credit risk off the balance sheet of the traditional banking system." They thought that would be a good thing. The traditional banks became an originator of loans which they packaged, securitized, and then sold to the shadow banking system, which then raised funds in the money market from mutual funds and asset-backed commercial paper that they issued to whomever. It was avoiding the traditional banking system entirely in this regard, and also avoiding all the regulation of the traditional banking system as well as all the regulatory support of the traditional banking system.
      But of course it had the same risks. You aren't actually getting rid of liquidity risk or getting rid of solvency risk; you are just moving them into a different place.   

      “影子银行”有几个基本特征：第一，资金来源受市场流动性影响较大；第二，由于其负债不是存款，不受针对存款货币机构的严格监管；第三，由于其受监管较少，杠杆率较高。说白了，它具有和商业银行类似的融资贷款中介功能，却游离于货币当局的传统货币政策监管之外。在中国的市场环境之下，影子银行主要涵盖了两块：一块是商业银行的理财产品，以及各类非银行金融机构销售的类信贷类产品，比如信托公司销售的信托产品，另一块则是以民间高利贷为代表的民间金融体系。
       有人认为，影子银行的发展已开始威胁金融系统的稳定。由于大笔存款流出银行体系，而银行本身的存款也变得更加短期化和波动化，这将造成银行的存贷期限错配问题更加严重。这已经是一种系统性的风险的萌芽状态。
       美国的影子银行规模庞大，在次贷危机前，影子银行的负债规模高达20万亿美元，而传统银行的仅为11万亿美元，截至2010年中期，这两项数据分别为16万亿美元和13万亿美元。这说明美国目前仍然是影子银行当道，因此，我们也不难理解为什么伯南克感到头痛了。

      中国大陆“影子银行”的规模：目前市场上存在的银行理财产品存量大约在6万亿，加上信托产品，二者的规模大约在10万亿元；民间融资规模大约10万亿，中国目前的“影子银行”金融体系大约运营着人民币20万亿。中国整体银行的存款总量大约为90万亿元，贷款总量70万亿，这意味着“影子银行”大约占整个市场容量的30%。
相对于美国，中国大陆的影子银行还只是小儿科。