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现代制药调研：产品结构调整见成效 跑赢大市
2011年09月07日 09:08来源：上海证券
报告目的
现代制药 (SH:600420)最新价：13.70 0.38 2.85%行情走势 大单追踪 资金流向最新研报 公司新闻 最新公告个股股吧 优股预测 龙虎榜近期我们拜访了现代制药[13.70 2.85% 股吧 研报]主管投资的副总经理魏冬松、证券主管刘多，并更新了一些现代制药生产经营上的情况。
主要观点
海门原料药基地建设动工，预计2013 年投产
公司海门基地的建设于今年三月正式奠基，与先前预计的去年年底开始建设，略有滞后，总建设期为一年半，加上建成后基地设备GMP认证和试生产等需要一些时间，估计整个海门原料药基地将于2013年全面投产，届时海门基地将完全解决公司产能瓶颈的现状。海门一期建设主要以原料药为主，主要面向国际市场，主要为抗HIV 类、大环内酯类、心血管类和孕激素类等四大类。其中，主要建设目标为建设一个华东最大的抗艾滋病生产基地。主要产品包括齐多夫定，阿巴卡韦，奈伟拉平，并同时申报正规市场批文，毛利率可以比普通市场的高约20%-50%。
产能受限促使产品结构调整，业绩依然有所增长
海门基地建成之前，虽然公司近期加大了南翔、嘉定基地的改造和浦东基地制剂生产线的扩建，但是产能仍然无法满足公司发展的需求。
公司订单很多，但是公司不得不为长久发展考虑，放弃一些前景差毛利低的产品，为一些重点产品让路。
从公司半年报来看，原料药销售2.95 亿元，同比增长仅0.73%，毛利率下降了5.5%，主要原因是公司主导产品阿奇霉素原料药上游硫氰酸红霉素价格不断攀升，而下游阿奇霉素制剂限价，从而影响了整体利润空间。此外，由于FDA 对于国际抗艾滋病的首选药物的推荐由原来的齐多夫定改为现在的阿巴卡韦，今年公司齐多夫定的下游需求有所减少。虽然公司原料药利润下降较多，但公司制剂业务上半年保持了很高的增长。公司制剂方面上半年收入3.65 亿元，同比增长了31.15%，毛利率依然保持稳定。这与公司的经营策略有着很大的关系：
1)确保重点产品的增长势头。公司现有品种中硝苯地平控释片、依那普利片等几个重点制剂品种销量与去年同期相比有了明显的增长。
2)重点培育一些新产品。由于医工院新型制剂产品储量丰富，现代制药将近水楼台先得月，公司去年就从医工院转让了8 个新型制剂项目，前景均十分广阔，公司将着手培育这些新的品种成为公司将来的重磅炸弹。
未来六个月内，给予“跑赢大市”评级
预计公司11、12年实现每股收益为0.44元和0.52元，以09月01日收盘价13.97元计算，动态市盈率分别为32.03倍和26.68倍。同行业可比上市公司11年、12年平均动态市盈率为37.41倍、27.72倍。公司现在估值略低于同行业平均水平。考虑到公司虽然产能限制但产品结构调整已见成效，海门基地已动工建设未来业绩放量是大概率事件，我们调升公司的评级为“跑赢大市”。(本文来源：上海证券)
艾滋病不治会早死，早治才康复 艾滋病不治会早死，早治才康复 艾滋病不治会早死，早治才康复 艾滋病不治会早死，早治才康复
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| 图示∶2011年5月正式出版的《中国特色医疗金鉴》登载的刘君主任及其机构事迹 |
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Modern pharmaceutical research: the product structure adjustment paid off outperform
At 09:08 on September 7, 2011 Source: Shanghai Securities
Reporting purposes
Modern Pharmaceutical (SH: 600420) Last Price: 13.70 0.38 2.85% market trends to track capital flows, large single study reported the latest News Announcements Stock Charts stock it superior stock forecasts recently we visited the modern pharmaceutical [13.70 2.85% Shares it research report] Weidong Song vice president in charge of investment, securities director Liu and more, and updated some of the modern pharmaceutical production and management situation.
Main points
Haimen API base construction begin in 2013
Haimen company bases the foundation in March of this year, with the previous construction of the expected end of last year, slightly lagging behind, with a total construction period of one year and a half, plus the base after the completion of GMP certification and test equipment, production will take some time, it is estimated the Haimen API base will be fully operational in 2013, when the Haimen base will completely solve the company's production capacity bottleneck situation. Haimen a construction based mainly on raw material medicine, mainly for the international market, mainly for anti-HIV, macrolides, cardiovascular and progesterone hormones and other four categories. Among them, the main goal of building the largest East to build a production base of AIDS. The main products include zidovudine, abacavir, Chennai Wei leveled, and also declared the regular market approval, gross margins can be higher than the average market about 20% -50%.
Limited capacity to promote the product structure adjustment, growth performance remains
Before the completion of Haimen base, although the company recently increased Nanxiang, Jiading, Pudong-based transformation and expansion of production bases in preparation, but still can not meet the company's capacity development needs.
Company orders a lot, but the company had to consider long-term development, to give up some of the poor prospects of low margin products, to make way for some key products.
Semi-annual report from the company point of view, API sales 295 million yuan, an increase of only 0.73%, gross margin decreased by 5.5%, mainly due to the company's leading product azithromycin bulk drug prices rising erythromycin thiocyanate upstream and downstream of azithromycin preparation limit, thus affecting the overall profit margins. In addition, the FDA first choice for the international anti-AIDS drug AZT from the original recommendation to the current abacavir, zidovudine year, the company reduced the downstream demand. Although the company profits fell more bulk drugs, formulations business in the first half but the company maintained a high growth. Agents in the first half of the company revenue 365 million yuan, an increase of 31.15%, gross margin to remain stable. This company's business strategy has a great relationship:
1) to ensure the growth of key products. Company's existing varieties of nifedipine, enalapril, and several other key agents varieties of film sales compared to last year has been significantly increased.
2) focus on cultivating a number of new products. Biomedical Engineering Institute as a new drug product is abundant, the proximity and easier access of modern pharmaceuticals, the company last year working on a career in medicine hospital transfer of eight new formulations of the project, the prospects are very broad, the company will begin to cultivate these new varieties into the company's future blockbuster.
The next six months, to give "outperform" rating
11 and 12 years the company expects to achieve earnings per share of 0.44 yuan and 0.52 yuan, to September 01 closing price of 13.97 yuan terms, the dynamic price-earnings ratio of 32.03 times, respectively, and 26.68 times. Comparable listed companies in the industry for 11 years, the dynamic 12-year average price-earnings ratio of 37.41 times, 27.72 times. Now slightly lower than the industry average valuation. Although the company taking into account the capacity constraints but the product structure adjustment has paid off, Haimen base has commenced construction of the heavy volume of future performance is a high probability event, we raised the company's rating to "outperform." (This article Source: Shanghai Securities)
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