文|蔡成平    环球时报英文版   2011年4月7日

http://en.huanqiu.com/opinion/commentary/2011-04/641975.html

Japanese politics watchers were expecting a "March crisis" this year, with the scandal-ridden Naoto Kan government finally collapsing under the weight of its problems. But a more tragic crisis arrived, following the triple disaster of earthquake, tsunami, and potential nuclear meltdown.

The March 11 earthquake had had as great an impact upon Japan as the September 11 terrorist attacks did in the US. The earthquake not only changed the landform of the Japanese islands, but also hit hard the already sluggish Japanese economy.

However, the disaster brought a temporary truce to Japanese politics.

The opposition parties, such as the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), changed their previous attitudes and began to fully cooperate with the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) and Kan's cabinet. Within the DPJ, dissident factions ceased their squabbling and focused all their attention on disaster relief.

The spirit of national unity has prompted calls for a coalition government to cope with the crisis. In the national elections in 2009, Japan successfully established a US-style two-party system after 60 years of dominance by the LDP. Now the Japanese hope that the LDP and DPJ can establish a coalition government to save the nation, using the best talent from both sides.

However, is there a realistic possibility of a coalition government? Sadakazu Tanigaki, president of the LDP, recently refused an invitation from Kan to serve as deputy prime minister. There is an insurmountable gap between the LDP and DPJ, so it is not easy for them to build a coalition.

More and more politicians in Japan have been enthusiastic about the bipartisan administration recently. It is possible for Japan to build a coalition government. But even if such a government is formed, how long can it last? We could easily find the answer from the strange phenomenon that Japan had nine prime ministers in 10 years.

Yasuo Fukuda, former Japanese prime minister, points out that a coalition government has to deal with the problem of which party will dominate, LDP or DPJ. A coalition government also needs an outstanding political leader, such as ex-DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa, who has the ability to work with various political groups. However, Ozawa can't stage a comeback, as his image has been severely damaged by scandals.

Behind every historic leap of Japan, such as the Meiji Restoration and the post-war rise, there were always first-class leaders. Ryoma Sakamoto, a famous politician who united various political groups to overthrow the Tokugawa government and started the Meiji Restoration, is worshiped by many modern politicians in Japan.

Many even claim to model themselves on Sakamoto. However, as the curator of Ryoma Sakamoto memorial hall claims, Sakamoto's chief advantage was that he did not have selfish motives and took the needs of the whole society as his first priority. Sakamoto was assassinated at 33, before he could finish his program of reform. Aspiring modern Sakamotos might not face as grisly a fate, but the prospect of a political stab-in-the-back from rivals seems strong.

Ryoma once said "Japan needs a thorough cleaning." If Japan's politicians want to build a coalition government and save the country, they need to clean themselves up first.

The author is director of the Tokyo-based Asia-Pacific Political and Economic