Summary摘要
· Economic reform priorities:
macroeconomic stability;
income growth for 800 million rural residents;
balanced development, incl. regeneration
of north-east & central industrial bases;
better allocation of capital through bank reform;
environmental protection; and creation of 10 mill new jobs a year.
· Q3 figures show mild moderation of Chinese growth to
more sustainable levels (around 9% trend growth),
with fixed investment down but still contributing substantially to growth
(up 53% y/y in Jan-Feb and 27% in Jan-Sep);
trade growth strong; and credit growth reined in to pre-2003 levels.
· Interest rates up 0.25% on 28 Oct:
first increase in 9 years in response to mild inflationary pressure
· Foreign exchange reserves up to $515bn at end Q3:
capital inflows show continued market speculation of RMB appreciation
but the authorities have so far retained the de facto dollar peg.
· Long-term goal is to quadruple GDP between 2000 & 2020
(an implied annual growth rate of 7.2%).
Upside 积极面
· Exports and imports up strongly in Q1-Q3 period
– 35.3%y/y and 38.2%y/y respectively
(a trade deficit with the rest of Asia but continued
large bilateral surpluses with EU and US).
Growth in imports highlight China’s huge demand of raw materials,
which have helped push up global commodities prices in recent months.
· China’s WTO implementation, while patchy in some sectors,
sets a roadmap for continuing market liberalisation over the next few years.
Downside消极面
· Rising inequality and unemployment
- despite creation of 9 mill new jobs in China in 2003,
the scale of urbanisation, industrial restructuring and excess
labour supply means the jobless total is still rising.
· Regional energy/labour shortages
- in most of China’s provinces rapid investment growth
has caused shortages in electricity supply.
Rising agricultural prices and poor wages for migrant workers
in urban areas have led many workers to stay in farm areas,
causing regional labour shortages.
________________________________________________________
Fig 1: GDP annual & sectoral growth (% y-o-y)
Fig 2: Trade and FDI Utilisation (Unit: US$ b)
Fig 3: Inflation and fixed assets investment (% y/y)
Fig 4:Income inequality between rural & urban
NB: 2004*figurres are for Q1-Q3.
Background Data 背景数据
A. Economic indicators:经济指标
China is the world’s most populous country with around 1.3 billion people.
It is the 6th largest economy in the world， ahead of Italy
(2nd largest in purchasing power parity terms).
GDP is US$1.4 trillion and GDP per capita around US$ 1090 (2003).
The renminbi is de facto pegged at US$1 = 8.3RMB (£1=15 RMB)
|
|
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 Q1-Q3 |
|
Real GDP Growth (%) |
7.1 |
8.0 |
7.3 |
8.0 |
9.1 |
9.5 |
|
CPI Inflation (%) |
-1.4 |
0.4 |
1.2 |
-0.8 |
1.2 |
4.1 |
|
Exports ($bn) |
195 |
249 |
266 |
325 |
438 |
416 |
|
Imports ($bn) |
159 |
225 |
248 |
295 |
413 |
412 |
|
Trade Balance ($bn) |
36 |
24 |
18 |
30 |
26 |
4 |
|
For. Reserves($bn) |
158 |
168 |
212 |
286 |
403 |
515 |
Source: National Bureau of Statistics nbsp;
________________________________
B. Trade and investment贸易与投资
UK is the largest European foreign direct investor into China in total stock terms.
China is the largest recipient of FDI in the world in 2002 and 2003.
UK exports of goods:
|
£ million
(% change y/y) |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003
|
2004
Jan.-May |
|
China |
1,216 (40) |
1,469 (21) |
1,722 (17) |
1,505 (-12.6) |
1,933 (28.4) |
917 (18.4) |
|
Hong Kong |
2,320 (-14) |
2,674 (15) |
2,699 (1) |
2,431(-9.9) |
2,501 (2.9) |
965 (-7.4) |
|
Japan |
3,304 (3) |
3,667 (11) |
3,712 (1.2) |
3,593(-3.2) |
3,739 (4.1) |
1,467(0.5) |
_________________________________
C. Development:发展
Around half of China’s GDP is generated along the narrow eastern seaboard.
A key priority for the government is development of the central and
western provinces, to reduce growing income inequalities and
generate alternative income sourcesfor farmers
(the rural population is around 700-900 mill).
Despite the government’s great success in poverty reduction,
over 200 million still live on less than $1a day.
Progress since reform:
|
|
1978 1 |
2001 2 |
|
Population on <$1 per day (%) |
80 |
16 |
|
Net primary school enrolment rate (%) |
84 |
93 |
|
Illiteracy (% of population) |
33 |
14 |
|
Infant mortality rate (per 1000 births) |
65 |
30 |
Sources: 1 World Bank and 2 2001 World Bank Indicators, 2003
Measures of inequality (countries in brackets are those with broadly similar
HDI and GDP per capital levels):
|
Province |
HDI ranking in 1999 1 |
Per capita GDP (RMB) in 1999 2 |
Life expectancy in 1995 1 |
Adult literacy in 1997 3 |
|
Shanghai |
0.853 (Czech Rep) |
30,805 (Slovakia) |
75.5 |
89.8 % |
|
Guangdong |
0.771 (Thailand) |
11,739 (Egypt) |
74.2 |
90.4 % |
|
Sichuan |
0.671 (Honduras) |
4,356 (Haiti) |
68.9 |
82 % |
|
Gansu |
0.632 (Namibia) |
3,595 (India) |
67.6 |
73.2 % |
|
China |
0.718 (El Salvador) |
7,936 (Bolivia) |
70.2 |
82.3 % |
Sources: 1 UNDP China Human Development Report ‘Making Green Development
A Choice’ , 2 OECD Synthesis Report ‘China in the World Economy:
The Domestic Policy Challenges’ (2002) and 3 UNDP China Human
Development Report ‘Transition and the State’ (1999)