宋圭武观点78：经济本质是不可预测的

个人认为，经济本质是不可预测的，下面谈谈理由，供各位参考。实际经济运行是主观世界与客观世界互动的一个结果。其中客观世界是不以人的意志为转移的，具有可预测性，但主观世界由于具有自由意识品格，所以本质是无法有效预测的。最终主观世界与客观世界相结合的经济世界，其运行结果本质也是无法有效预测的。当然，若经济主体的主观世界具有一成不变性，没有自由意志的选择，则经济运行就具有了预测准确的科学基础。但这与真实世界是不相符的。另外，经济预测的实践也证明，大多数经济学家的预测记录都不大好。既然经济专家们的预测记录一般都不大好，为什么大多数人仍然热衷于追逐他们的预测？一个原因是人们面对不确定性，尽管无法判断预测的准确性，但有权威专家的预测总比没有预测好，这会给需要预测的人一种更多心理上的安全感，而这种安全感又与人类的进化本能有关。因为人类作为一种智慧生物，面对充满随机而无法预测的未来，会产生一种心理上的无助感和恐惧感，从而客观会产生一种求助权威的心理。这与算命有些类似。从科学的角度看，虽然经济本质是不可预测的，但不可预测，并不意味经济就不需要研究。这里研究经济，主要目的是针对经济现实，推进经济行为要更符合公平正义原则和更符合可持续发展原则。好，谢谢，谢谢。

Song Guiwu's Viewpoint 78: The Economy Is Unpredictable

Personally, I think the economy is unpredictable. Here are the reasons for your reference.The actual economic operation is a result of the interaction between the subjective world and the objective world.The objective world is not subject to human will and has predictability, but the subjective world is unpredictable in nature because of the free will character.Finally, the economic world combines the subjective world with the objective world, and its operation results are also unpredictable in nature.Of course, if the subjective world of the economic subject is unchangeable and there is no choice of free will, the economic operation has a scientific basis for accurate prediction.But this is inconsistent with the real world.In addition, the practice of economic forecasting has also proved that most economists have a poor forecasting record.Since most economic experts have a poor forecasting record, why are most people still keen to chase their predictions?One reason is that people face uncertainty. Although they cannot judge the accuracy of the prediction, the prediction of an authoritative expert is always better than no prediction, which gives people who need to predict a more psychological sense of security, and this sense of security is related to the evolutionary instinct of human beings. Because human beings as intelligent creatures, facing the random and unpredictable future, will have a sense of helplessness and fear in psychology, which will objectively produce a psychological need to turn to authority. This is similar to fortune telling. From a scientific perspective, although the nature of economics is unpredictable, but unpredictable, does not mean that economics does not need to be studied. Here, the main purpose of studying economics is to promote economic behavior to be more in line with the principles of equity and justice and sustainable development. OK, thank you, thank you.