消费行为是不断变化的，社会网络是在消费者购买和观看决定因素，以时移电视为特点的交互应用，互动电视走向越来越大的作用，这种经营模式转变为复杂，除依赖业务模型支持电视行业面临的压力，更重要的是适应网络时代的压力。

    商业模式的影响

    电视现有的商业模式是精心建造，许多球员和许多相互依赖的收入流。部分的经验，我们已接受核心70多美元包月套餐；节目在数百个频道；30秒钟的电视广告；延迟释放窗口DVD；免费互联网节目。

    所有的商业模式在今天遭受到压力挑战，虽然存在一个很大的辩论和分歧，行业专家它将如何演变，毫无疑问，这将在未来五到十年发生改变。

    ●百分之四十六认为，运输费用在商业模式就显得不那么重要了，其他百分之54个不同意。

    ●百分之三十八认为广告将发挥更重要的作用，在经营模式为主，有62%不同意。

    ●百分之三十八认为政府赞助公共频道发挥同样重要的作用，而其余百分之62个持不同意见。

    ●百分之八十的受访者认为，消费者会有灵活性建立自己的电视包月包年，增加只有他们想要的内容。

    然而，大多数专家认为，在未来，消费者将享受到更加灵活的方式他们购买电视和服务。

 

    大多数观众观看定制、点播的节目流，或者将使用功能强大的搜索/推荐引擎，从可用的库中获得无限的内容。

    随着消费者越来越地“时间转移”观看他们的电视观赏（当他们想看，就能看到他们想要的内容，），传统频道+肥皂剧传播品牌的模式将减弱。

   电视频道的数量和内容库已发展到一个规模，如何让消费者便利搜寻频道成为一个关键点。

从技术的角度来看，互联网的连接设备，比如Xbox，苹果电视设备电视和Roku公司将在未来几年获得爆炸式增长。

    当他们这样做，消费者就会开始联想到电视与互联网搜索和发现的体验。

    他们还将需求功能集成为单一，简化的界面，不再用多个盒子满足多样需求。

 

    消费者会使用自然语言、手势、和辅助设备，如智能手机和平板电脑iPad与电视互动，就像他们与另一人交流一样容易。

    在过去，互动电视增强停滞，部分原因是由于缺乏良好的人机交互。

    即使在今天，专家批评GoogleTV最近推出笨重的遥控-键盘装置。

    然而，界面创新是进入市场的途径。包括Verizon 和Comcast等一些公司，已经提供的软件，使消费者能够用他们的ipad或智能手机控制使用电视。

    任天堂的游戏，以其独特的，通过控制器，产生了重大影响的游戏市场。微软发布了kinect手势接口，推动竞争，这是迅速日益普及的一个因素。

    索尼也推出了PS3的接口。此外，我们现在看到的第三方应用市场开发的手势界面，如GestureTek的Xbox 360 手势控制工具，这可能进一步加快创新。
   随着分层数据架构体系改善和进步，语音和面部识别技术得到更多应用，我们应该期望用户经验之外的一个设想在电影《少数派报告》一个场景，“电视可以识别你的情绪，以适当的内容作出相应的反应。”

 

   尼尔森研究估计，1.16亿的美国家庭设备普遍认识到1在20年内，将不再是真实的但一个电视屏。

   美国人将投资在屏幕。一些将更薄更大，并有比我们今天知道定义更高的，甚至一些可以占据一整面墙。

许多将被包含在更高质量的后代的便携式设备我们随身携带的口袋，等智能手机，平板电脑，便携式游戏玩家。有些可能是可扩展的，灵活的，甚至可穿戴的电视屏。

    屏幕将无处不在，每个屏幕将有多用途。这些屏幕可用于监控安全系统，在后院也容易看电视。

想象一个屏幕在卧室的墙上显示一个您喜欢的绘画。通过你的一个手势，它就转化为您的个性化电视。

   一些更多的姿态变换屏幕，可以成为为视频会议屏，当你的计划已经结束，你可以与另外一边的儿童其祖母视屏通话，问候晚安，表达关爱亲情。

    到了晚间睡觉休息时间，你的电视屏会成为与时钟相同屏幕，渐变为变暗的夜。当它醒来的时间，慢慢地照亮屏幕模仿日出。

    在未来，这些屏幕将无法购买作为“电视”——电视经验将被分离一个特定的设备。从一开始，使设备或屏幕将被视为多功能，多用装置。

 

    广告商越来越相信他们的广告支出不能有效；他们希望达到目标客户的方式，以前没有可能。在未来，广告商单独的“广告”，观众可以很容易通过DVR硬盘录像机忽略、跳过这些广告，或跑去厨房。

    相反，大多数的广告将结合内容，高度互动，为每一个观众定向发布广告。

描述这样的场景：观众只要要点击一个在电视节目时的接收广告信息对象，想象指着宝马在新杰姆斯邦德电影和接收信息的现有模式，关联的4S店服务配置，甚至奖励在附近的汽车经销商开发电视商务促销。
    智能系统可以透过不断梳理、分析消费者过去的观看和购买行为（包括有关他们的社会网络），这些系统将然后选择从一个广告数据库为每个观众定制发布。
    例如，如果节目是关于户外的，喜欢野营观众，露营“信息框广告”将显示给他们。

 

    消费者已经与一些电视内容(“Lost迷失” “CSI犯罪现场”)在不同的方法：游戏，社交媒体，和其他领域。

    以后，这个趋向将更强，并且消费者与某一电视内容更加无缝和经常互动。

    例如，使用在他们自己的社区的资源在当前消费者和产业趋向引伸，观看者可以“friend”他们喜爱的电视字符或调查剧情解开谜团。

    虽然“粉丝”心态始终存在，在交互和影响的过程中会发生变体。

    技术创新采用达到的水平，这种互动不仅是可能的，而且还可以支撑或超出预算。

    社会网络和智能手机的主要手段，这方面的经验，取得了大量采用。此外，创建专用网页与网站合作，会产生巨大市场。

    最后，一些工作室已经投资在“跨媒体”——跨越多种形式的媒介讲故事，创造更多的粉丝。

 

6一起看电视
    电视是创造条件的社会互动，鼓励人们在家里与远程朋友和家人共同参与。

    电视的有益的作用是作为一个社会“收集机制”，电视客厅超越了空间限制。

    运动视频捕获和远程全息技术将使远程的朋友和家人一起自然互动、观看电视。

    虽然他们今天，家庭会聚集在中央通过观看装置来观看最喜欢的电视节目。

    然而，借助社会网络技术，观众也会邀请朋友和家庭成员加入远程虚拟布景。

    只需要集成解决方案，技术可以将观众的社区经验意识这一设想成为现实。

    社会网络技术等facebook可以提供一个有效的平台和用户接口，而辅助设备如平板电脑和智能手机能使互动从主屏幕上观看。

 

    增强的电视收看经验将引进新的感觉、使消费者有更多的选择，他们是如何相互作用的内容。如果厂商将使观众感知气味和味道在实时复制。

   有公司将生产让他们感受到司机为他他的赛车崩溃，或随风飘散的海风吃海滩上一个温暖的夏季的一天的“影响影像”。

    首先，经验将是自然和无干扰。观众将不需要笨拙的眼镜，就能“脱离”电视音量的感官刺激。但当观众充分从电视经验，将身临其境并深深刺激，体验就大不一样。

    最后，消费者将有更多的选择，他们如何体验内容。他们可能从不同角色的观点观看情节，或从不同角度拍摄。

 

    通过提供最优质的手持设备、普遍的屏幕、和云存储平台，在任何地方，消费者的电视内容会即时访问。
消费者不再是拴在一个特定的设备或网络，并将有限的联系，时间本身。

    因此，在火车上，坐在车的后座上，或者走在街上，消费者会选择他们想看，他们在线杂货，
    此外，他们将能够传递内容的无缝跨设备连接（例如，从智能手机到朋友的电视屏幕，指向手机电视）。
我们已经看到了一个改变了人们消费娱乐内容，著名的例子是从家庭音响ipods.
   电视现在是遵循这样的路径：Hulu, Netflix, and Sling应用程序，超越消费者的个人偏好，外部因素也将开始推动这一愿景。

   例如，随着人口的增长，过度拥挤和高能成本迫使更多大众运输，将允许他们的体验转换到移动电视。

生产商将迎合这些感觉和元素趋势发展专业内容。
 

    半专业和业余的电影和电视制作将蓬勃发展，用分散的方法创建、资金、和内容提供，繁荣了大众市场。
作为专业编辑生产工具的价格继续下降，进入大众市场，用户生成内容（UGC）将获得高质量水平。

    此外，经验丰富，但失业的好莱坞专业等技能爱好者将自己制作高质量的内容，会赢得预算。

    低成本电影如“超自然”和《贫民窟的百万富翁》的票房成功表明，对于独立电影市场，“病毒性营销”可以起到积极成果。

    展望未来，基于网络的协作工具会给这些业余萨尔特人不仅对营销的内容，但也为他们的项目和找到负担得起的，熟练的技术和创意他们需要执行他们的视野。

   此外，越来越多的UGC将准备好黄金时间并在“YouTube”网站公布，这将导致一个非常的“长尾市场”。

 

    内容创造或是一直在寻找如何保持清新而激情的消费者。
    最好的方法之一，邀请消费者直接进入电视剧生产的过程。
    想象一下，你最喜欢的节目播出的星期三晚上。
    到星期五晚上，你可以参加在线协作会议制定和表决的新思路下定出。

    在星期五晚上，讨论是封闭的，生产者在星期六和星期二之间编剧和录制节目。

    星期三，我们都调成看到节目插曲。游戏也将提供一个新的用户创造的内容源。
    今天的大规模玩家的“在线游戏”有一个外观和感觉的对手，就是新的电影。
    鉴于视觉质量的游戏一样，“波斯王子”热播，狂热的游戏玩家相互作用令人信服，一部分的游戏时间可以非常悦目。

Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group (IBSG)
 

 

附录：英文原稿

<The Future of Television: Sweeping Change at Breakneck Speed >

            ——Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group (IBSG)

Ten Predictions that Will Transform the TV-Viewing Experience

 

1. Channels Go Away
Most viewers will watch customized, on-demand streams, or they will access unlimited content
from available libraries using powerful search/recommendation engines.

As consumers increasingly “time-shift”their TV viewing (watching what they want, when they
want), traditional channelshaveless mindshare and brand awareness. The number of channels
and size of content libraries have grown to the point that channel searching now frustrates
consumers.

Froma technological standpoint,Internet-connected television devices such as the Xbox, Apple
TV,and Roku will see an adoption explosion in the next few years.

As they do,consumers will start to associate Internet-like search and discovery with the TV. They’ll also demand integrated functionality that’s part of a single, simplified interface—no more multiple boxes.

One hundred percent of the TV experts agreed with this prediction.

Figure 1. Gestures Control the Action

 

2. Kiss the Remote Goodbye
Consumers will use natural language,gestures,and adjunct devices such as smart phones and
iPads to interact with their TVs as easily as they do with another person (see Figure 1).

In the past, interactive TV enhancements stalled, due in part to the lack of a good interface
device.Eventoday,expert scriticize the recently launched GoogleTV device for what they calla
clunky remote-keyboard interface.

However, interface innovation is making its way into the market. Several companies, including Verizon and Comcast, are already providing software that enables consumers to control theirTVs using their iPadsor smartphones. The Nintendo Wii, with its unique, gesture-based controller,has had a major impact on the gaming market.

Driven by competition,Microsoft has released its own gesture-based interface,Kinect,which is rapidly gaining popularity.

Sony has also released its own interface for the PS3.

Inaddition,we are now seeing a third-party applications market develop around gesture interfaces,such as GestureTek’s Xbox 360 gesture-control tools,which is likely to further accelerate innovation.

Couple this with hierarchical data-display improvements and advances in speech and facial
recognition technologies, and we should expect a user experience beyond the one envisioned
in the movie “Minority Report,” where the TV can recognize your mood and respond
accordingly with appropriate content.

Nearly all of the industry experts—94 percent— agreed with this prediction.They cited voice
technologies and theearly adoption of the iPhone and iPad as key factors that are advancing
the market.

 

3. Screens Do Anything, Anywhere
Today, Nielsen research estimates that 116 million American homes have a device universally
recognized as a TV.1 In 20 years, that will no longer be true: Americans will invest in screens.
Some will be thinner, larger, and have even higher definition than the ones we know today.

Some could occupy a whole wall.Many will be contained with in the higher-quality descendents of the portable devices we carry in our pockets today,such as smart phones,tablet PCs, and portable
gaming players. Some may be expandable, flexible, or even wearable. Screens will be everywhere,and eachscreen will be multi purpose (see Figure2). These screens could be used
to monitor a backyard security system as easily as to watch TV.

Imagine a screenonyour bedroom wall that displays a replica of your favorite painting. With a
wave of your hand,you transform it into your personalized TV.When your program is over,a few
more gestures transform the screen into a video-conferencing suite so you can say goodnight
toyour childrenat their grandmother’s house. At bed time, you set youralarm clock on the same
screen, which darkens for the night. When it’s time to wake,the screen slowly brightens to mimic
the sunrise.

In the future, these screens will not be purchased as“TVs”—the TV experience will be detached
froma specific device. From the outset, the enabling devices or screens will be valued as
multifunctional, multipurpose devices.

All of the survey respondents agreed that the TV itself would changed ramatically.While 40
percent thought the sechanges would occur relatively slowly, 30 percentbelieved they would
happen quickly.

The subsequent wave of change will bring holographic projectors that project life-size 3D
images of TV shows right into your living room, though this will take longer to realize. Only 17
percent of the experts thought holograms would be commonplace by 2030.

 

4. Ads Get Personal
Advertisersincreasingly believe that their ad spending is not effective; they arelooking toreach
target customers in ways that were not previously possible.In the future,advertisers won’trely
on separate “commercials” that viewers can easily ignore by skipping over them with their DVRs
or by running to the kitchen for a snack. Rather, the majority of ads will be contextual, highly
interactive, and laser-targeted to each viewer.

Picture the following scenario: Viewers will simply pointat or click on an object ina television
program to receive advertising information.Imagine pointing at the BMW in the latest James
Bond movie and receiving information on available models, configurations, and even incentives
at near by car dealerships.

Intelligent systems could continuous lycomb through consumers’
pastviewing andpurchasing behaviors (including thosepertaining totheir socialnetworks), and
dynamically pair these within the context of the program being viewed. These systems would
then make a selection from an ad inventory customized for each viewer. For example, if the
program is about the great outdoors and the viewer likes to camp, then ads for camping gear
would be shown.

In the survey,83 percent of respondents agreed with this prediction.However,of those,40
percent thought this transition will take longer than some innovations to occur.

 

5. Don't Just Watch—Get Involved
Consumers are already interacting with some TV content (“Lost,” “CSI”) across different
modalities:games,social media,and other arenas.

Incoming years,this trend will gain momentum, and consumers will interact with certain TV content even more seamlessly and often.
Forexample,in an extension of current consumer and industry trends,viewersmay “friend”their
favorite TV characters or investigate plot twists using resources in their own communities. They

could, for instance, collaborate with other fans to aid key characters in solving a crime or
mystery.

Although the“fan”mentality has always existed,it will morph from a process of collecting and
following to one of interacting and influencing. Technology innovation and adoption have
reached levels where this type of interaction is not only possible, but also can be supported
without en or mousbudgets.

Social networking and smartphones,key enablers of this experience,have achieved mass-marketadoption.Inaddition,tools to create special-purpose webpages and collaboration sites alreadye xist.

Finally,studio shave already invested in “transmedia”—storytelling across multiple forms of media—tocreatemorebuzz and loyalty so their content doesn’t get lost.

Eighty-seven percent of survey respondents agreed with this prediction.45 percent
felt that theTV experience would change in the near future. The sere spondents believe that
consumers’ relationship with television has already expanded beyond the bounds of TV
episodes.

 

6. Watch Together, Virtually
TV will be an enabler of social interaction, encouraging group participation at home with remote
friendsand family.TV’s valuable role as a social-gathering mechanism will grow beyond the
living room and water cooler. Technology—from motion capture to video telepresence to
holograms—will enable remote friends and family towatch TV together and interactnaturally.
Muchasthey do today,families will congregate around a central viewing device to watch their
favorite shows.However,with the help of social networking technologies,viewers will also invite
friendsand remotefamily members to join the mina virtualsetting.Viewerswillexperiencea
sense of community for the duration of the program.

Thetechnology to enable this vision isavailabletoday—it just need san integrated solution.
Social networking technology such as Facebook could provide an effective platform and user
interface, while adjunct devices such as tabletPCs and smart phones could enable interaction
off the main viewing screen.

Eighty percent of survey respondents agreed with this prediction, although 43 percent thought
it would take longer than some innovations to be fully realized. 

7. Is It Real, or Is It Television?
Advances in the TV-viewing experience will introduce new sensory elementsand enable
consumers to have more choice in how they interact with their content.

lf actory reproduction will enable viewers to perceive smells and taste in real time.Tactilere production will let them feel the impact on a driver as he crashes his car,or the waft of a sea breez eat the beach on a warm summer day. Above all, the experience will be natural and nonintrusive. Viewers will not need clumsy he lmets or glasses,and will be able to“disengage”from sensory stimuli as simply as turning down the TV’s volume. But when viewers do fully engage, the TV experience will be immersive and deeply stimulating.

Last, consumers will have more choice in how they experience content. They may view plots
from different characters’ viewpoints, or from different camera angles. Producers will cater to
these trends by developing specialized content that in corporates these sensory and plot
elements.

Inthesurvey,90 percent of respondents agreed with this prediction;of those,44 percent
thought adoption would take longer than for certain other advances.

 

8. Your TV Follows You
With superior-quality handheld devices,pervasive screen options,and cloud-based storage,
consumers’ TV content—all of it—will be instantaneously accessible anywhere. Consumers will
no longer be tethered to a particular device or network, and there will be limited ties to time itself.
As a result,consumers will choose what they want to watch while they stand inline for groceries,
travelon the train, sit in the back seat of the car, or walk down the street. Moreover, they’ll be able to transfer content seamlessly across devices (for example, from a smartphone to a friend’s TV screen, just by pointing the phone at the TV).

We have already seen a change in the way people consume entertainment content. One
notable example is the move from home stereos to iPods.TV is now following the same path:
apps for Hulu, Netflix, and Sling already work on smart phones. Beyond consumers’ personal
preferences, external factors will also begin to drive this vision. For example, as the population grows,overcrowding and highenergy costs could force more people to mass transportation— a transition that will allow themto experience the value of mobile TV.

A full 93 percent of survey respondents agreed with the prediction, and 43 percent thought the
prediction was too conservative.

 

9. “Regular Joes” Go Hollywood
Semi professional and amateur film and TV-making will flourish,and decentralized methodsto
create, fund, and deliver content to the mass market will thrive. As professional editing and
production tools continue to plummet in price and reach the mass market,user-generated
content(UGC)will acquire a high level of quality.Further more,experienced but out-of-work
Hollywood professional sand other skilled amateurs will produce their own high-quality content
on shoe string budgets.The box office success of low-budget films such as“Paranormal Activity”
and “Slumdog Millionaire”demonstrates that viral  marketing can fuel positiv erevenue outcomes
for the independent film market.Going forward,web-based collaboration tools will give these
amateur salter natives not only for marketing their content, but also for bankrolling their projects and finding affordable, skilled technical and creative people they need to execute their vision.

Further, ever-greater percentagesof UGC willbe ready for prime time. Online (or software)
agents or “bots” will mine, cull, and publish these popular stories on future “YouTube” sites. This will result in an extremely long tail of content,with literally billion soft it less erved side-by-side with traditionally produced studio content.

Ninety percent of survey respondents agreed with this prediction and, of these, more than 40
percent felt that the pace of change would happen more quickly than for some other
innovations.

 

10. Creation Goes Viral
Content creat or sare always looking for ways to stay freshand insync with the pulse of the
consumer.One of the best ways to do this is to invite consumers directly into the process.
Imagine that your favorite show airs on Wednesday night.Until Friday night,you can participate
in online collaboration sessions to develop and vote on new ideas for the next week’sepisode.

On Friday night,the discussion is closed,and the producers write and tape the show between
Saturday and Tuesday.On Wednesday,we all tune into see the show’slatest episode.

Gaming also will provide a new consumer-created content source. Today’s massive multi-
player online games have a look and feel that rivals that of newly released films. Given the visual quality of a game like “Prince of Persia” and the compelling interactions among avid gamers, a portion of  that game time  can be immensely watchable,event to those not actively participating in the game.

Almost  three-quarters of respondents  73 percent  agreed with this prediction. However, of
these,45 percent think it may take longer tofully realize this vision than for other advances.

 

Television’scurrent business model is delicately constructed,with many players and numerous,
inter dependent revenue streams. Parts of the experience that we have grown to accept as
core— $70-plus monthly subscription packages; programming across hundreds of channels;
the 30-second TV commercial; delayed release windows for DVDs; free premium shows on the
Internet—are all a resul to fthe business mode linplace today.That mode lisunder pressure,
and while thereisa great deal of debate and disagreement among industry experts about
exactly how it will evolve, there is no question that it will change dramatically over the next five to 10 years.

The views among experts were varied:

● Forty-six percent thought the role of carriage fees in the business model would become less important, and the other 54 percent disagreed.
● Thirty-eight percent believed that advertising would play a less important role in the
business model; there maining 62 percentdis agreed.
● Thirty-eight percent thought government sponsorship of public channel swould play a
less important role, while the remaining 62 percent held a different opinion.
However,most experts agreed that in the future,consumers would enjoy more flexibility in how
they purchase TV.Eighty percent of respondents felt that consumers would have the flexibility to
build their own TV subscription packages by adding only content they want.

 

Television in the not-too-distant future is sure to provide an immersive, collaborative experience that even the Jetsons might never have imagined, and much of the groundwork for that future is already in place. Technological innovation is accelerating, as evidenced by HD flat-screens, “3D TV,” and smartphones entering the mainstream ina matterof months rather than years. Consumer behavior is evolving,illustrated by the move toward time-shifted TV and the
increasing role that social networks are playing in consumers’ purchasing and viewing
decisions.And,the business model is changing as the complex, inter dependent business
models supporting theTV industry face pressure to adapt to the Internet age.This pressureis
increasing as new and old players explore novel ways to monetize online content.One example
of this is Netflix, whose streaming audience grew from 41 percent to 61 percent in just one year.

 

Imaginewatching televisionwith no channels, no remote control, perhaps not evenaTVset.

You might catch the news on the bathroommirror as you brush your teeth,andthen check sports
scores after work on the family-roomwindow.

If a football game really captures your interest, you
could watch the action from any perspective you choose—the end zone, on the 50-yard line, or
even in the middle of the huddle.

During the commercial break,their resistible a roma of pizza
wafting from the TV might compel you to click on the logo and order a large double cheese right
from the screen.

It won’t be long before these scenarios become reality. The Cisco. Internet Business Solutions
Group (IBSG) recently interviewed more than 50 television experts—producers, engineers, and
scholars—to develop a picture of the future TV landscape.

These experts agree that almost every aspect of TV will be transformed: how we interact with the
TV; how we interact with one another while watching TV; our relationship with the content; the
nature of the TVscreen itself;how content is produced,packaged,and paid for;and whomakes
money from it.

CiscoIBSG believes the convergence of three key drivers—technology,consumer behavior,
and business models—will move us toward this “Jetsons” vision.

 New technology is rapidly increasing there solution of displays,and social net working technology is making it easy to share
and interact with content.

Improved Internet connectivity and performance allow delivery of
high-definition video without interruption.

Asaresult,consumers’ TV usage is changing: they
increasingly expect access to content anywhere, anytime.

In terms of business models,
advertisers are scrambling to adjust as the DVR,Internet video,and other time-shifting options
pull the rug out fromunder traditional, linear TV advertising, causing many to question whether it
is still the most effective model for reaching consumers.

Already, some content providers are
testing the watersby bypassing aggregators and delivering TV content straight to the
consumer.

After examining these drivers and holding in-depth discussions with TV experts, Cisco IBSG
developed 10 predictions for the future of television.

Although we asked the experts for their
perspective on the television landscape 20 years from now, the current, blistering rate of
changecould cause some of the sepredictions to become reality in the next five years.

Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group (IBSG)