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艾滋病市场领袖快速整合稳固霸主地位
来源 医药经济报 王迪 2010-7-29 8:46:54
国外商业情报机构GBIResearch公司最近发表了一份研究报告----《HIV治疗产品的未来：2015年前市场预测，竞争标杆，产品研发线以及交易分析》。该报告对尚未满足的治疗市场需求，以及对全球HIV治疗市场产生影响的动力和障碍进行了深度的分析。报告还对美国、欧洲五大国家（英国、德国、法国、意大利和西班牙）以及日本的HIV治疗市场进行了预测。报告预计，在2015年之前，治疗模式、销售、价格和销量将成为这一市场上的重要因素。此外，报告还分析了龙头企业在全球HIV市场上具有竞争标杆性意义的兼并、收购和许可的活动。
市场适度增长速度受制专利失效
HIV市场正在呈温和增长态势，并且美国占据主导地位。由于受重要药物的专利失效的影响，市场增长率有可能从2012年起开始下降。然而，治疗向新的品牌药转移可能将会最大限度地减少仿制药所造成的影响。目前，在这一市场上，仿制药大约占据7.8%的份额。
全球HIV治疗市场预计将从2008年的108亿美元增加到2015年的139亿美元，年复合增长率（CAGR）为3.7％。市场的增长主要受到处方率的上升以及新颖药物的使用不断增加的驱动，特别是将不同类别的治疗药物组合在一起的“鸡尾酒疗法”（HAART），比如，高效的抗逆转录病毒治疗药物Atripla等的销售不断上升。与前几年相比，HIV市场以更加缓慢的速度在增长。这主要是因为一些重要药物的专利正在陆续到期，比如市场上的主打药物Sustiva和Combivir将在2012年失去专利保护。然而，专利失效的影响将会被新颖的药物不断问世所抵消，这些药物在治疗疾病的发展上显得更加有效。
2008年，大约有150万遭受HIV感染的病人接受抗逆转录病毒治疗（ART）方法治疗，从2008~2015年，这一数字将以6%的CAGR增长。此外，未来3年里，ART的年平均治疗费用预计将以较高的速度增长，而从2012年起，由于一系列药物专利到期，治疗价格预计将会下降。
然而，专利失效的影响有可能会在2015年减弱。后期研发药物（比如TibotecPharmaceuticals公司的Rilpivirine和先灵葆雅公司的Vicriviroc）预计将在2008~2015年期间进入临床，并将对市场产生积极的影响。由此，在2008~2015年间，HIV市场价值将会温和增长。
在报告所涉及到的重点国家中，美国是最大的HIV市场，它占整个市场大约70%的份额，紧随其后的是由英国、法国、意大利、西班牙和德国组成的欧洲国家，日本大约占据1%，它在研究报告所涉及到的地区中市场增长率最高。日本HIV市场的增长将受以下这些因素的驱动：感染HIV病毒的人数增加，得到确诊随后开始接受治疗的病人增加。目前，日本的HIV感染率很低。
未来几年组合药物出彩
HIV市场所需要的药物不仅应具有成本效益，还应能够治愈这种疾病。目前，市场上有30多只药物获批用于治疗HIV和艾滋病（获得性免疫缺陷综合征，AIDS）。然而，尽管如此，从药物的功效来衡量，HIV市场有着很高的尚未得到满足的治疗需求，因为目前没有一只药物可以治愈这种传染病。所有类别的药物在安全性上相对较高，但在治疗效果上却相对欠缺。
不过，从降低人体内的HIV水平来衡量，一些新的组合药物的功效已经得到了改进。因此，药物之间在功效上的竞争主要是在延缓疾病的发展上，从这方面来看，药物的组合被认为具有更好的治疗效果。
市场上的HIV治疗药物都被认为是安全的，因为当与感染进展所产生的影响相比较时，与HIV治疗药物相关的副作用可说是微不足道的。艾滋病是致命的，它与许多机会性感染有关，而这种感染会降低病人的生活质量。因此，有些抗逆转录病毒药物的一些副作用被认为相对安全。
HIV研发药物都是一些非创新药物，正在研发之中的药物与市场上已有药物相类似。不过，处于研发之中的一些相对较新的药物类别可以帮助解决耐药性的问题。因此，虽然HIV市场的需求不能得到满足将会继续存在，但是，一些新颖的药物也许可以为耐药性HIV提供更好的治疗，或者将具有更好的功效，从而提高治疗质量。
市场由三大公司把持大约占66%份额
在全球HIV治疗市场上，前五大公司大约占据了82%的市场份额。这些公司也在研究报告所涉及到的7个国家里保持领先地位。仿制药在这一市场上扮演一个次要的角色，从而使得品牌药占据较大的份额。
随着新型跨类别组合药物的推出，HIV治疗市场上的竞争格局也在发生变化。由于近年来成功地推出了相应的治疗药物，Gilead公司已经从葛兰素史克那里夺走了HIV治疗市场上的头把交易。而直到2006年，葛兰素史克还是这一市场上的佼佼者。2008~2015年，Gilead将继续领跑这一市场，这是因为其强大的产品具有增长潜力，而整个行业的产品研发线缺乏有希望的后期产品。
2008~2015年期末，如果有来自竞争对手的任何新药进入市场，那么它将对Gilead的市场领先地位产生影响。紧随Gilead之后的是葛兰素史克和百时美施贵宝公司，它们合计占有大约37%的市场份额。2008年，Truvada是销售规模最大的HIV治疗品牌，其全球销售额大约为21亿美元，紧随其后的是Atripla，全球销售额为16亿美元。
参与者达成战略协议市场地位加强
自2008年以来，HIV市场一直呈现温和活跃态势。为了提高它们的市场地位，市场参与者形成了战略合作关系，并签订了许可协议。市场的整合以及单个公司占据主导地位已经促使大规模兼并和收购行动的发生，第二大HIV药物生产商葛兰素史克公司以及第一大制药公司辉瑞已经合并了它们的HIV业务。新公司只重点关注HIV，以便更好地与近年来成为市场领袖的Gilead公司展开竞争。
美国作为全球最大的HIV市场，其在兼并和收购（M&A）以及许可活动上最为活跃。在市场上的各类交易中，许可活动大约占据62%的比例，紧随其后的是与学术和其他机构达成研究合作关系，这类活动大约占据19%的比例。由于市场高度整合，只有若干M&A活动发生，占了整个市场交易活动的13%。预计当一些制药公司希望进一步加强它们的市场地位时，竞争激烈的HIV市场将会频现合作和不断增加的M&A活动。（生物谷Bioon.com）
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Rapid integration of strong market leaders AIDS dominance
Source Medicine Economic News Di-2010-7-29 8:46:54
Foreign business intelligence GBIResearch recently published a research report ----" HIV treatment products Future: 2015 market forecast, competitive benchmarking, product development line, and Transaction Analysis. " The report on the treatment of unmet demand, and the impact on the global HIV treatment market power and barriers to in-depth analysis. The report also on the United States, Europe, five countries (Britain, Germany, France, Italy and Spain) and Japan's HIV treatment market is predicted. The report predicts that by 2015, treatment patterns, sales, prices and sales will be an important factor in this market. In addition, the report also analyzes the leading enterprises in the global HIV market, competitive benchmarking significance of mergers, acquisitions and licensing activities.
Moderate growth rate of the market restricted the patent is invalid
HIV market is a moderate upward trend, and the U.S. dominated. Because of the important impact of the drug patent expires, the market growth rate may decline from 2012 onwards. However, the treatment of drug transfer to the new brand may be to minimize the impact of generic drugs. Currently, the market, generic drugs account for about 7.8% share.
HIV treatment worldwide market expected to grow from 10.8 billion in 2008 to 13.9 billion U.S. dollars in 2015, the annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of 3.7%. Market growth mainly by the rise in prescription rates and the increasing use of new drugs, driving, in particular the treatment of different types of drug combinations with the "cocktail therapy" (HAART), for example, effective antiretroviral therapy Atripla such sales on the rise. Compared with previous years, HIV market to a more slowly growing. This is mainly because a number of important drug patent is ready for renewal, such as market blockbuster drugs Sustiva and Combivir will lose patent protection in 2012. However, the patent failure of new drugs will be offset by continued advent of these drugs in the treatment of diseases, development of even more effective.
In 2008, about 1.5 million HIV infected patients subjected to antiretroviral therapy (ART) methods of treatment, from 2008 to 2015, this figure will increase by 6% CAGR. In addition, the next three years, ART treatment cost is estimated the annual average growth rate will be higher, but from 2012 onwards, a series of drug patents expire, prices are expected to decline treatment.
However, the failure of the patent may be reduced in 2015. Late R & D drugs (such as TibotecPharmaceuticals company Rilpivirine and Schering-Plough's Vicriviroc) is expected to be entered during the period from 2008 to 2015, clinical, and will have a positive impact on the market. Thus, in 2008 and 2015, HIV will be the market value of moderate growth.
Involved in the report focus countries, the United States is the largest HIV market, which accounts for about 70% of the overall market share, followed by Britain, France, Italy, Spain and Germany formed the European countries, Japan, about occupy 1% of its area covered by the report to the highest growth rate in the market. HIV market growth in Japan will be driven by the following factors: increase in the number of people infected with HIV virus, are confirmed then began to increase in-patient treatment. At present, Japan's HIV infection rate is very low.
Color combination of drugs out of the next few years
HIV drug market requires not only cost-effective and should be able to cure the disease. Currently, the market has more than 30 drugs approved only for the treatment of HIV and AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, AIDS). However, despite this, to measure the effects from the drug, HIV market with high unmet need for treatment, because there is no one medicine that can cure this disease. All categories of drugs are relatively high in safety, but the relative lack of treatment effects are.
However, lowering the body to measure HIV levels, some new combination of drugs has been improved efficacy. Therefore, drug effects on competition between the major diseases in the slow development of this perspective, the combination of drugs was considered to have a better therapeutic effect.
HIV-treatment drugs on the market are considered safe, because when the progress and impact of infection when compared with the HIV treatment drug-related side effects can be negligible. AIDS is fatal, with many of opportunistic infection, but the infection will reduce the patient's quality of life. Therefore, some anti-retroviral drugs, some side effects are considered relatively safe.
HIV drug development are non-innovative drugs under development in the drug and similar drugs already on the market. However, in research and development among some of the relatively new class of drugs can help to solve the problem of drug resistance. Thus, although HIV can not be met market De 需求 will Jixu exist, but, a number of novel agents may be resistant Xing Wei Ti Gong better for HIV treatment, the Gong Xiao Huo Zhe Jiang better, Conger improve Zhiliaozhiliang.
Market dominated by the three companies account for about 66% of the share
HIV treatment in the global market, the top five companies account for about 82% of the market. These companies are also involved in the study of seven countries to stay ahead. Generics in the market to play a minor role, making a larger share of the branded account.
With the new launch of cross-class combination of drugs, HIV treatment market, the competitive landscape is changing. Successfully launched in recent years the corresponding treatment of drug, Gilead has claimed from GlaxoSmithKline, where the first HIV treatment market to trade. And until 2006, GlaxoSmithKline is a leader in this market. 2008 to 2015, Gilead will continue to lead the market because of its strong product with growth potential, and the entire industry, the lack of R & D line of products promising late.
2008 to 2015 period, if there are any new drugs from competitors enter the market, it will lead to the Gilead impact on the market. Followed by Gilead and GlaxoSmithKline after the Bristol-Myers, which together occupy about 37% of market share. 2008, Truvada is the largest HIV treatment sales of the brand, its global sales of approximately 2.1 billion U.S. dollars, followed by Atripla, global sales of 1.6 billion.
Participants reached a strategic agreement to strengthen market position
Since 2008, HIV had been as moderate and active state. In order to improve their market position, market participants formed a strategic partnership and signed a license agreement. Market integration and a single company dominates a large-scale mergers and acquisitions has prompted action from occurring, the second largest HIV drug manufacturers GlaxoSmithKline and Pfizer, the largest pharmaceutical companies have combined their HIV business. The new company only focus on HIV, in order to better the market leaders in recent years to compete with the company Gilead.
The United States as the world's largest HIV market in mergers and acquisitions (M & A) as well as licensing activities on the most active. In the market various types of transactions, licensing activities, the proportion of about 62% occupied, followed with academic and other institutions to achieve cooperation between research, these activities account for approximately 19% ratio. As the market is highly integrated, only the number of M & A activity in the trading activity of the market accounted for 13%. While some pharmaceutical companies are expected to further strengthen their market position, the competition will be fierce in the HIV market is cooperation and the increasing frequency of M & A activity. (Bio Valley Bioon.com)
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