[导语]澳大利亚是全球最早开始真正意义的股权众融创新的国家。始于2005年ASSOB（澳大利亚小规模创业板），是全球第一家以“股市”形式进行股权众融投资的平台；ASSOB本身也是一家上市公司；ASSOB公司也是唯一一家被《世界银行2013众融报告》提及的股权众融样板企业。
我的众融导师，现任ASSOB公司CEO的PAUL NIEDERER先生，在众融、特别是在股权众融领域，是一位无可争议的权威；他也是诸多全球最高规格的众融论坛的主题演讲嘉宾。PAUL先生今天将他的新作《众融的2020年》转发给我，请我向中国的专业读者分享他的经验。
简译：林永青
未经授权，请勿转载! ......
Crowdfunding in 2020
Looking 6 years into the future, what can we expect crowdfunding to be in 2020
Firstly, the word “crowdfunding” will have virtually disappeared as peer to peer transactions will have become the norm.
看看未来6年，我们可以期待什么？首先，“众融”这个词将会消失，因为点对点（P2P）交易将成为常态。
Same thing happened with the term social networking.
同样的事情，也会在“社交网络”领域发生。
Thats just the way most people communicate now and few call it social networking.
Secondly, even equity crowdfunding will have moved more towards the “instant gratification” favoured in rewards based crowdfunding offers and be reflected as follows:
其次，即使股权众融也将朝着“及时快乐”的奖励型众融发展。
- Royalty based crowdfunding will draw business away from equity crowdfunding as computer systems can monitor and manage complex royalty disbursements
- 基于客户忠诚度系统的众融，将影响股权众融。因为电脑系统已经可以监控和管理复杂的“忠诚度支付”
- Large Companies using crowdfunding extensively for R &D strategies and marketing
- 大公司将密集地使用众融系统，作为研发战略和营销。
- Several very large stand out verticals as in pharma, green tech, clean tech, food processing etc
几家非常大的平台，将成为垂直众融平台。比如：制药行业、清洁能源、食品流程等等
- Peer to peer business loans taking business from equity crowdfunding as credibility statistics become more the norm for entrepreneurs and valuation models like Equidam become more sophisticated
P2P的商业贷款将从股权众融平台分走一部分业务，因为信用统计将越来越成熟，同时这对企业家和评估模型而言，将成为常态。
- Debt-equity hybrids developed that are not burdened by securities legislation
债权和股权混搭的模式，对于证券监管来说，将不会成为负担。
- Lots of “Linked campaigns” like Veronica Mars followup
- VM raised $5.6 million on Kickstarter, now they are contributing to charity with the deliverable (The Movie Launch) Linked campaigns like go.omaze.com/r0Ji
Also, participants will be both larger and either non-geographical or local
同时，市场参与者的成长，可以是非地域性、也可以是本地化的。
- eCommerce players becoming established in the crowdfunding market
- 电商的玩家们也在众融市场上成熟
- Businesses outsourcing to crowdfunding platforms
- 商业外包也出现在众融平台（这也是我所说的众包和众融的融合—林注）
- Women more successful than men due to being better at collaboration and social media
女性比男性更成功，因为她们在协作和社交媒体上做得更好！
- Most campaigns will be either “local” or “non-geographic”. Meaning it will mostly depend on where the support community resides.
Looking at the actual raise process (Pre-raise, Raise and Post-rise) there will be more crowd involvement and more transparency.
Pre-raise
- more transparency
- facial recognition authenticates parties relative to their internet history – or other identity management that will evolve which could include biometrics.
- whistleblowing is the norm from the crowd and sites will centralise known data. We have seen with MH370 how the crowd picks up information from many different sources and in the end mission control has to recognise that the crowd needs congruent information. Lack of transparency is quickly sensed by the crowd.
- for some raises crowd will determine rewards, assist with offering preparation and solve any issues before launch
Raise
- rewards can be contrived by the pledger / investor rather than being specified.
- two way negotiation can be built into platforms and a market for rewards may develop
- cross-border equity crowdfunding raises focussed at accredited investors will be a new norm
- most investor matching and documentation processes will be fully automated
- strong communities will be built, developed during the raise and live longer than the raise itself
- niche communities will build raises as a group
Post-raise
- outcome monitoring is readily available as different services focus on what happens after the money is raised scoring both the entrepreneurs and the investors
- This participants performance history will be freely available with decisions being made much in the same way people do when they decide who to purchase from on eBay. The eBay “Feedback profile” is explained as ”The positive Feedback percentage is calculated based on the total number of positive and negative Feedback ratings for transactions that ended in the last 12 months”. Crowdfunding project tracking will be a derivation of this.
A glimpse at the future … and it is all good!